A Vision for a Heavy Fuel Oil-Free Arctic

Prior, Sian; Walsh, David

doi:10.1080/00139157.2018.1517515

Cited by 6 publications

(6 citation statements)

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“…Despite our analysis focuses on the KS, it provides three lessons for oil spill risk management generalizable to the Arctic as a whole. First, the results support current aspirations to ban heavy fuel oil (HFO) in the Arctic . Second, in some situations, light oils, however, pose a higher risk to the environment, as they have higher spreading capacity than heavy oils.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 56%

“…First, the results support current aspirations to ban heavy fuel oil (HFO) in the Arctic. 34 Second, in some situations, light oils, however, pose a higher risk to the environment, as they have higher spreading capacity than heavy oils. Therefore, we should not base our risk assessments solely on the impacts of oiling on individual species (i.e., sensitivity) but also on the exposure capacity of different oil types.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of Oil Spills on Arctic Marine Ecosystems: A Quantitative and Probabilistic Risk Assessment Perspective

Helle

Mäkinen

Nevalainen

et al. 2020

Environ. Sci. Technol.

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Oil spills resulting from maritime accidents pose a poorly understood risk to the Arctic environment. We propose a novel probabilistic method to quantitatively assess these risks. Our method accounts for spatiotemporally varying population distributions, the spreading of oil, and seasonally varying species-specific exposure potential and sensitivity to oil. It quantifies risk with explicit uncertainty estimates, enables one to compare risks over large geographic areas, and produces information on a meaningful scale for decision-making. We demonstrate the method by assessing the short-term risks oil spills pose to polar bears, ringed seals, and walrus in the Kara Sea, the western part of the Northern Sea Route. The risks differ considerably between species, spatial locations, and seasons. Our results support current aspirations to ban heavy fuel oil in the Arctic but show that we should not underestimate the risks of lighter oils either, as these oils can pollute larger areas than heavier ones. Our results also highlight the importance of spatially explicit season-specific oil spill risk assessment in the Arctic and that environmental variability and the lack of data are a major source of uncertainty related to the oil spill impacts.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 56%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Oil Spills on Arctic Marine Ecosystems: A Quantitative and Probabilistic Risk Assessment Perspective

Helle

Mäkinen

Nevalainen

et al. 2020

Environ. Sci. Technol.

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“…Moreover, the carriage and use of heavy fuel oil in the Arctic may be prevented in near future (Prior and Walsh 2018). For example, few oil types fall into the category of extra heavy oils, but we still included them in the analysis to get a more complete picture of the potential effects of variety of oil types.…”

Section: Applicability Of the Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, few oil types fall into the category of extra heavy oils, but we still included them in the analysis to get a more complete picture of the potential effects of variety of oil types. Moreover, the carriage and use of heavy fuel oil in the Arctic may be prevented in near future (Prior and Walsh 2018). Lastly, Arctic oil spill response is an increasingly studied topic (Wenning et al 2018) and the improving preparedness may decrease the risk the spilled oil poses to environment in the future.…”

Section: Applicability Of the Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Index‐based approach for estimating vulnerability of Arctic biota to oil spills

2019

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Citation: Nevalainen, M., J. Vanhatalo, and I. Helle. 2019. Index-based approach for estimating vulnerability of Arctic biota to oil spills. Ecosphere 10(6):Abstract. Risk of an Arctic oil spill has become a global matter of concern. Climate change induced opening of shipping routes increases the Arctic maritime traffic which exposes the area to negative impacts of potential maritime accidents. Still, quantitative analyses of the likely environmental impacts of such accidents are scarce, and our understanding of the uncertainties related to both accidents and their consequences is poor. There is an obvious need for analysis tools that allow us to systematically analyze the impacts of oil spills on Arctic species, so the risks can be taken into account when new sea routes or previously unexploited oil reserves are utilized. In this paper, an index-based approach is developed to study exposure potential (described via probability of becoming exposed to spilled oil) and sensitivity (described via oil-induced mortality and recovery) of Arctic biota in the face of an oil spill. First, a conceptual model presenting the relevant variables that contribute to exposure potential and sensitivity of key Arctic marine functional groups was built. Second, based on an extensive literature review, a probabilistic estimate was assigned for each variable, and the variables were combined to an index representing the overall vulnerability of Arctic biota. The resulting index can be used to compare the relative risk between functional groups and accident scenarios. Results indicate that birds have the highest vulnerability to spilled oil, and seals and whales the lowest. Polar bears' vulnerability varies greatly between seasons, while ice seals' vulnerability remains the same in every accident scenario. Exposure potential of most groups depends strongly on type of oil, whereas their sensitivity contains less variation.

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“…Ship traffic in the Arctic has been growing accordingly (Dawson et al 2018;Gunnarsson 2021), with new cruise ships, tankers, bulk carriers, and container ships venturing into the area. A matter of environmental concern is that many ships are operating on heavy fuel oil (HFO) (Prior and Walsh 2018;Chircop 2020). HFO entails high oil pollution risks in case of accidental spillage and contributes to climate-forcing emissions of black carbon.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Oil pollution and black carbon in the Arctic

Hofmann¹

2022

Routledge Handbook of Marine Governance and Global Environmental Change

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Chapter 20 explores the management of increased shipping activities in the Arctic Ocean, which is changing dramatically due to regional warming and declines in the extent and thickness of sea ice. Increased shipping, which has been made possible by climate change, poses new threats to Arctic Ocean ecosystems, including the growing danger of accidental spillage of fuel oil and emissions of black carbonitself a contributor to climate change into the atmosphere. In response to these threats, traditional state-based governance approaches, notably in the context of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), are being supplemented by newer forms of transnational governance that involve nongovernmental and corporate actors. This combination of traditional approaches to marine environmental governance with newer innovative approaches can serve as an example for governing other marine environments affected by global change. The chapter advocates innovative governance involving nonstate actors in the region, which in turn can stimulate traditional state-oriented institutions to bring their resources to bear on addressing the impacts of global environmental change.

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A Vision for a Heavy Fuel Oil-Free Arctic

Cited by 6 publications

References 0 publications

Impacts of Oil Spills on Arctic Marine Ecosystems: A Quantitative and Probabilistic Risk Assessment Perspective

Impacts of Oil Spills on Arctic Marine Ecosystems: A Quantitative and Probabilistic Risk Assessment Perspective

Index‐based approach for estimating vulnerability of Arctic biota to oil spills

Oil pollution and black carbon in the Arctic

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