A Viral Branching Model for Predicting the Spread of Electronic Word of Mouth

Abstract

In a viral marketing campaign, an organization develops a marketing message and encourages customers to forward this message to their contacts. Despite its increasing popularity, there are no models yet that help marketers to predict how many customers a viral marketing campaign will reach and how marketers can influence this process through marketing activities. This paper develops such a model using the theory of branching processes. The proposed viral branching model allows customers to participate in a viral marketing campaign by (1) opening a seeding e-mail from the organization, (2) opening a viral e-mail from a friend, and (3) responding to other marketing activities such as banners and offline advertising. The model parameters are estimated using individual-level data that become available in large quantities in the early stages of viral marketing campaigns. The viral branching model is applied to an actual viral marketing campaign in which over 200,000 customers participated during a six-week period. The results show that the model quickly predicts the actual reach of the campaign. In addition, the model proves to be a valuable tool to evaluate alternative what-if scenarios.branching processes, forecasting, Markov processes, online marketing, viral marketing, word of mouth

Towards Sustainability in Viral Marketing with User Engaging Supporting Campaigns

“…Hinz et al [14], for instance, found that seeding viral content among individuals with many social connections was particularly effective in maximising the eventual reach of that content. While van der Lans et al [10] developed a model to examine, in part, the effect that different seeding strategies would have on the viral dissemination of content. This focus on campaign seeding is perhaps a reflection of the difficulties associated with developing or managing other elements of viral marketing campaigns.…”

“…As noted earlier, efforts to effectively measure and model viral marketing processes have been hampered by data availability issues. Thus, to date, analytical approaches for examining viral marketing mechanisms have typically employed pure simulation techniques [42], used simulation techniques when examining actual campaigns to estimate those data points for which no data was available [10,36], conducted self-report studies of intentions [7], or examined contexts that approximate viral marketing [43]. Each of these approaches is characterized by various restrictions that limit the accuracy or generalization of the study findings.…”

“…It capitalizes on the trust embodied in an individual's social network, as individuals are more likely to attend to and forward messages that have been sent within their social network [6][7][8]. Research in this field draws explicitly on an epidemiological understanding of how diseases spread through populations [9][10][11], and it is targeted for the identification of factors affecting the dynamics of the campaign [12] and modeling spreading processes [13]. Seeding strategies based on the selection of initial members of the target group are investigated [14].…”

Modern marketing approach: Concept of viral marketing

“…Termin viralni marketing opisuje fenomen kojim potrošači međusobno dele i šire informacije bitne za marketing, koje su prvenstveno poslate namerno od strane marketing menadžera kako bi se stimulisalo prenošenje poruka od osobe do osobe [19]. Viralni marketing je marketinška tehnika koja koristi društvene mreže za proizvodnju povećanja svesti o brendu, kroz samostalno ponavljanje viralne poruke, analogno širenju patoloških i kompjuterskih virusa [13].…”

“…Marketing menadžeri mogu da biraju tri različita načina za započinjanje svoje kampanje viralnog marketinga [19]:  Imejl strategija  Strategija onlajn reklamiranja  Strategija oflajn reklamiranja Da bi se sprovela strategija viralnog marketinga potrebno je adekvatno sprovesti sledeće korake [11]:  Kreiranje strategije i ideje koja će se širiti -potrebno je jasno definisati ideju, cilj i krajnje rezultate kampanje.  Kreiranje prilagođenog sadržaja -odabrati medijum i pripremiti poruku u skladu sa zahtevima tog medijuma.…”