A View of the Chesapeake Bay

Bahner, Lowell H.

doi:10.2307/3868472

Cited by 1 publication

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“…Burns et al used linear interpolation to estimate the maximum yearly extent of hypoxia in the central basin of Lake Erie for 1983 to 2002 using the yearly minimum observed DO for each of ten regular sampling stations. Although simple techniques such as linear and nonlinear interpolation , and inverse distance weighted interpolation can provide an estimate of spatial extent, they do not rigorously account for the spatial correlation of the data, do not provide quantitative estimates of uncertainties, and generally cannot make use of auxiliary variables to improve estimates.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and Temporal Trends in Lake Erie Hypoxia, 1987–2007

Zhou

Obenour

Scavia

et al. 2013

Environ. Sci. Technol.

136

124

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Hypoxic conditions, defined as dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations below 2 mg/L, are a regular summertime occurrence in Lake Erie, but the spatial extent has been poorly understood due to sparse sampling. We use geostatistical kriging and conditional realizations to provide quantitative estimates of the extent of hypoxia in the central basin of Lake Erie for August and September of 1987 to 2007, along with their associated uncertainties. The applied geostatistical approach combines the limited in situ DO measurements with auxiliary data selected using the Bayesian Information Criterion. Bathymetry and longitude are found to be highly significant in explaining the spatial distribution of DO, while satellite observations of sea surface temperature and satellite chlorophyll are not. The hypoxic extent was generally lowest in the mid-1990s, with the late 1980s (1987, 1988) and the 2000s (2003, 2005) experiencing the largest hypoxic zones. A simple exponential relationship based on the squared average measured bottom DO explains 97% of the estimated variability in the hypoxic extent. The change in the observed maximum extent between August and September is found to be sensitive to the corresponding variability in the hypolimnion thickness.

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