A value of information framework for assessing the trade‐offs associated with uncertainty, duration, and cost of chemical toxicity testing

Abstract

A number of investigators have explored the use of value of information (VOI) analysis to evaluate alternative information collection procedures in diverse decision‐making contexts. This paper presents an analytic framework for determining the value of toxicity information used in risk‐based decision making. The framework is specifically designed to explore the trade‐offs between cost, timeliness, and uncertainty reduction associated with different toxicity‐testing methodologies. The use of the proposed framework is demonstrated by two illustrative applications which, although based on simplified assumptions, show the insights that can be obtained through the use of VOI analysis. Specifically, these results suggest that timeliness of information collection has a significant impact on estimates of the VOI of chemical toxicity tests, even in the presence of smaller reductions in uncertainty. The framework introduces the concept of the expected value of delayed sample information, as an extension to the usual expected value of sample information, to accommodate the reductions in value resulting from delayed decision making. Our analysis also suggests that lower cost and higher throughput testing also may be beneficial in terms of public health benefits by increasing the number of substances that can be evaluated within a given budget. When the relative value is expressed in terms of return‐on‐investment per testing strategy, the differences can be substantial.

Cutting-edge computational chemical exposure research at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

“…However, the available data and models used to represent exposure tend to be static and incremental so that model estimates lag contemporary reality by years or decades. Recognizing trade-offs of uncertainty, duration, and cost of chemical assessments ( Hagiwara et al, 2022 ), our research efforts optimize workflow efficiency related to aggregation, curation, and harmonization of data inputs into model runs. For example, improved approaches for the extraction, harmonization and curation of data have been developed ( Mansouri et al, 2016 ) and are being used to extract physiochemical property data from public domain resources.…”

Development of an Evidence-Based Risk Assessment Framework

“…This need was underscored by the NRC ( 2009), which recommended the use of formal value-of-information techniques to the adoption of formal value-of-information (VOI) methods to evaluate alternative testing strategies. Price et al (2021) and Hagiwara et al (2022) have recently developed informal and formal VOI methods to evaluate the trade-offs between the cost, timeliness, and uncertainty reduction. These contributions suggest that while rapid alternative test methods may be subject to greater uncertainty than traditional more expensive animal tests of longer duration, having sufficient information to support risk decision making in a timely manner can result in a lower total social cost by avoiding public health impacts that can accrue when decisions are delayed pending the results of toxicity tests of longer duration.…”