A Validation Data-Set and Suggested Validation Protocol for Ship Evacuation Models

Abstract

An evacuation model validation data-set collected as part of the EU FP7 project SAFEGUARD is presented. The data was collected from a cruise ship operated by Royal Caribbean International (CS). The trial was a semi-unannounced assembly trial conducted at sea and involved some 2500 passengers. The trial took place at an unspecified time however, passengers were aware that on their voyage an assembly exercise would take place. The validation data-set consists of passenger; response times, starting locations, end locations and arrival times in the assembly stations. The validation data were collected using a novel data acquisition system consisting of ship-mounted beacons, each emitting unique Infra-Red (IR) signals and IR data logging tags worn by each passenger. The results from blind simulations using maritimeEXODUS for the assembly trial are presented and compared with the measured data. Three objective measures are proposed to assess the goodness of fit between the predicted model data and the measured data.

The use of confidence intervals to determine convergence of the total evacuation time for stochastic evacuation models

“…Furthermore, to demonstrate this analysis we will make use of 10,000 simulated evacuation experiments of a cruise ship validation case (Galea et al, 2012(Galea et al, , 2013(Galea et al, , 2014, the details of which will be described later in this paper. From the set of 10,000 evacuation simulations, random samples of 1000 TETs were selected one million times.…”

“…In their work the representative TET is the mean value of all the TETs generated together with the standard deviation of the TETs and is therefore, in its current form, unsuitable for examining the convergence of τ. Galea et al (2012Galea et al ( , 2013Galea et al ( , 2014 have also used functional analysis for validating a computed egress curve against an experimentally derived egress curve for a large cruise ship. The work presented in this paper differs from these by considering convergence based on confidence intervals (CIs) and particularly the 95 th percentile TET, τ.…”

Prospects for use of extended reality technology for ship passenger evacuation simulation

“…Field experimental research on the ships is rare, due to high cost of performing such events and challenges in of ensuring repeatability of the process. Nevertheless, an experimental evacuation was performed on two cruise ships and gathered relevant data concerning evacuation simulation index (Galea et al, 2013(Galea et al, , 2014. Also, small scale experimental evacuation was performed on a passenger ship to investigate passengers' motions in the case of emergency (Gwynne et al, 2003).…”

An Evacuation Simulation for Hazard Analysis of Isolation at Sea during Passenger Ship Heeling

“…Simulations were performed at various initial angles and angular velocity conditions to evaluate the risk of isolation at sea when evacuating to a high deck, in the opposite direction the ship was heeling, while sinking. Twelve test cases for software verification of IMO MSC.1/Circ.1533 and verification of SAFEGUARD Validation Data Set 1 [ 10 ] were performed [ 3 , 9 ]. For the conditions of all passengers and crew members, the age, gender, and response duration of passengers and crews were distributed according to the criteria of IMO MSC.1/Circ.1533.…”