BACKGROUND:
All-cause readmission rates in patients undergoing ileostomy formation are as high as 20–30%. Dehydration is a leading cause. No predictive model for dehydration readmission has been described.
OBJECTIVE:
To develop and validate the Dehydration Readmission after Ileostomy Prediction (DRIP) scoring system to predict risk of readmission for dehydration after ileostomy formation.
DESIGN:
Patients who underwent ileostomy formation were identified using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) dataset (2012–2015). Predictors for dehydration were identified using multivariable logistic regression analysis and translated into point scoring system based on corresponding β coefficients using 2012–2014 data (derivation). Model discrimination was assessed with receiver operating characteristic curves using 2015 data (validation).
SETTINGS:
This study used the ACS-NSQIP.
PATIENTS:
A total of 8064 patients (derivation) and 3467 patients (validation) were included from the ACS-NSQIP.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:
Dehydration readmission within 30 days of operation
RESULTS:
A total of 8064 patients were in the derivation sample, with 2.9% (20.1% overall) readmitted for dehydration. Twenty-five variables were queried, and seven predictors were identified with points assigned: ASA Class III (4 points), female gender (5 points), ileal pouch anal anastomosis (4 points), age ≥65 years (5 points), shortened length of stay (5 points), ASA Class I-II with inflammatory bowel disease (7 points), and hypertension (9 points). A 39-point, 5-tier risk category scoring system was developed. The model performed well in derivation (AUC=0.71) and validation (AUC=0.74) samples and passed the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.
LIMITATIONS:
Limitations of this study pertained to those of the ACS-NSQIP including: lack of generalizability, lack of ileostomy-specific variables, and inability to capture multiple readmission ICD-9/10 codes.
CONCLUSIONS:
The DRIP score is a validated scoring system that identifies patients at risk for dehydration readmission after ileostomy formation. It is a specific approach to optimize patient factors, implement interventions, and prevent readmissions. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/DCR/Axxx.