A valid and reliable belief elicitation method for Bayesian priors

Johnson, Sindhu R.; Tomlinson, George; Hawker, Gillian; Granton, John; Grosbein, Haddas A; Feldman, Brian M.

doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2009.08.005

Cited by 72 publications

(91 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…This study employed the roulette method (also called ‘chip and bins’) because it has been shown to be feasible, valid and reliable in a clinical setting [14]. Current best practice for elicitation was followed [9], [14], which included: (i) a face-to-face interview (ii) providing examples as a training exercise (iii) use of a standardized script (see Appendix S1), (iv) a design that avoided heuristics, which are mental strategies people use to make numerical assessments in the face of uncertainty, but can introduce bias [15] (v) provision of feedback (vi) the opportunity for participants to revise their response (vii) use of simple graphical methods.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Does Reviewing the Evidence Change Veterinary Surgeons’ Beliefs Regarding the Treatment of Ovine Footrot? A Quantitative and Qualitative Study

Higgins

Green

et al. 2013

PLoS ONE

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Footrot is a widespread, infectious cause of lameness in sheep, with major economic and welfare costs. The aims of this research were: (i) to quantify how veterinary surgeons’ beliefs regarding the efficacy of two treatments for footrot changed following a review of the evidence (ii) to obtain a consensus opinion following group discussions (iii) to capture complementary qualitative data to place their beliefs within a broader clinical context. Grounded in a Bayesian statistical framework, probabilistic elicitation (roulette method) was used to quantify the beliefs of eleven veterinary surgeons during two one-day workshops. There was considerable heterogeneity in veterinary surgeons’ beliefs before they listened to a review of the evidence. After hearing the evidence, seven participants quantifiably changed their beliefs. In particular, two participants who initially believed that foot trimming with topical oxytetracycline was the better treatment, changed to entirely favour systemic and topical oxytetracycline instead. The results suggest that a substantial amount of the variation in beliefs related to differences in veterinary surgeons’ knowledge of the evidence. Although considerable differences in opinion still remained after the evidence review, with several participants having non-overlapping 95% credible intervals, both groups did achieve a consensus opinion. Two key findings from the qualitative data were: (i) veterinary surgeons believed that farmers are unlikely to actively seek advice on lameness, suggesting a proactive veterinary approach is required (ii) more attention could be given to improving the way in which veterinary advice is delivered to farmers. In summary this study has: (i) demonstrated a practical method for probabilistically quantifying how veterinary surgeons’ beliefs change (ii) revealed that the evidence that currently exists is capable of changing veterinary opinion (iii) suggested that improved transfer of research knowledge into veterinary practice is needed (iv) identified some potential obstacles to the implementation of veterinary advice by farmers.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Does Reviewing the Evidence Change Veterinary Surgeons’ Beliefs Regarding the Treatment of Ovine Footrot? A Quantitative and Qualitative Study

Higgins

Green

et al. 2013

PLoS ONE

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“…The approach we chose was an adaption of a weighting method, 111 albeit with four non-numerical categories. We asked radiologists to assign a distribution of probabilities, forcing the responses to sum to 100%.…”

Section: Strengths and Limitations Of The Surveysmentioning

confidence: 99%

The relationship between pelvic vein incompetence and chronic pelvic pain in women: systematic reviews of diagnosis and treatment effectiveness

Champaneria

Shah

Moss³

et al. 2016

Health Technol Assess

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BackgroundPelvic congestion syndrome (PCS) is described as chronic pelvic pain (CPP) arising from dilated and refluxing pelvic veins, although the causal relationship between pelvic vein incompetence (PVI) and CPP is not established. Non-invasive screening methods such as Doppler ultrasound and magnetic resonance venography are used before confirmation by venography. Percutaneous embolisation has become the principal treatment for PCS, with high success rates often cited.ObjectivesOur proposal aimed to systematically and critically review the definitions and diagnostic criteria of PCS, the association between PVI and CPP, the accuracy of various non-invasive imaging techniques and the effectiveness of embolisation for PVI; and to identify factors associated with successful outcome. We also wished to survey clinicians and patients to assess awareness and management of PCS and gauge the enthusiasm for further research.Data sourcesA comprehensive search strategy encompassing various terms for pelvic congestion, pain, imaging techniques and embolisation was deployed in 17 bibliographic databases, including MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science. There was no restriction on study design.MethodsMethodological quality was assessed using appropriate tools. Online surveys were sent to clinicians and patients. The quality and heterogeneity generally precluded meta-analysis and so results were tabulated and described narratively.ResultsWe identified six association studies, 10 studies involving ultrasound, two studies involving magnetic resonance venography, 21 case series and one poor-quality randomised trial of embolisation. There were no consistent diagnostic criteria for PCS. We found that the associations between CPP and PVI were generally fairly similar, with three of five studies with sufficient data showing statistically significant associations (odds ratios of between 31 and 117). The prevalence of PVI ranged widely, although the majority of women with PVI had CPP. Transvaginal ultrasound with Doppler and magnetic resonance venography are both useful screening methods, although the data on accuracy are limited. Early substantial relief from pain symptoms was observed in approximately 75% of women undergoing embolisation, a figure which generally increased over time and was sustained. Reintervention rates were generally low. Transient pain was a common occurrence following foam embolisation, while there was a < 2% risk of coil migration. Confidence in the embolisation technique is reasonably high, although there is a desire to strengthen the evidence base. Even among women with CPP, fewer than half had any knowledge about PCS.ConclusionsThe data supporting the diagnosis and treatment of PCS are limited and of variable methodological quality. There is some evidence to tentatively support a causative association, but it cannot be categorically stated that PVI is the cause of CPP in women with no other pathology, as the six most pertinent drew on clinically disparate populations and defined PVI inconsistently. Embolisation appears to provide symptomatic relief in the majority of women and is safe. However, the majority of included studies of embolism were relatively small case series and only the randomised controlled trial was considered at risk of potential biases. There is scope and demand for considerable further research. The question of the association of PVI and CPP requires a well-designed and well-powered case–control study, which will also provide data to derive a diagnostic standard. An adequately powered randomised trial is essential to provide evidence on the effectiveness of embolisation, but this faces methodological challenges.Study registrationThis study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42012002237 and CRD42012002238.FundingThe National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

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“…It may be that these candidate criteria reflect established, late disease, and are insufficient in the modern treatment era. The next step may be to elicit beliefs from international PsA experts to understand what is the true "gestalt" of PAM today 78,79 . It may be that additional candidate criteria for the various elements of the disease are needed.…”

Section: Rheumatologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Psoriatic Arthritis Mutilans: Clinical and Radiographic Criteria. A Systematic Review

Haddad

Somaily²,

Fazelzad³

et al. 2015

J Rheumatol

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A valid and reliable belief elicitation method for Bayesian priors

Cited by 72 publications

References 39 publications

How Does Reviewing the Evidence Change Veterinary Surgeons’ Beliefs Regarding the Treatment of Ovine Footrot? A Quantitative and Qualitative Study

How Does Reviewing the Evidence Change Veterinary Surgeons’ Beliefs Regarding the Treatment of Ovine Footrot? A Quantitative and Qualitative Study

The relationship between pelvic vein incompetence and chronic pelvic pain in women: systematic reviews of diagnosis and treatment effectiveness

Psoriatic Arthritis Mutilans: Clinical and Radiographic Criteria. A Systematic Review

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