A unified activities-based approach to the modelling of viral epidemics and COVID-19 as an illustrative example

Abstract

A new approach to formulating mathematical models of increasing complexity to describe the dynamics of viral epidemics is proposed. The approach utilizes a map of social interactions characterizing the population and its activities and, unifying the compartmental and the stochastic viewpoints, offers a framework for incorporating both the patterns of behaviour studied by sociological surveys and the clinical picture of a particular infection, both for the virus itself and the complications it causes. The approach is illustrated by taking a simple mathematical model developed in its framework and applying it to the ongoing pandemic of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), with the UK as a representative country, to assess the impact of the measures of social distancing imposed to control its course.