A type-2 fuzzy modelling framework for aircraft taxi-time prediction

Abstract

Knowing aircraft taxi-time precisely a-priori is increasingly important for any airport management system. This work presents a new approach for estimating and characterising the taxi-time of an aircraft based on historical information. The approach makes use of the interval type-2 fuzzy logic system, which provides more robustness and accuracy than the conventional type-1 fuzzy system. To compensate for erroneous modelling assumptions, the error distribution of the model is further analysed and an error compensation strategy is developed. Results, when tested on a real data set for Manchester Airport (U.K.), show improved taxi-time accuracy and generalisation capability over a wide range of modelling assumptions when compared with existing fuzzy systems and linear regression-based methods.

Prediction and Analysis of Airport Surface Taxi Time: Classification, Features, and Methodology

“…In 2014, Ravizza et al [47] compared and analyzed the results of multivariate linear regression, least median squared linear regression, Support Vector Regression, M5 model tree, and TSK fuzzy model, and the results showed that the TSK fuzzy rule system model outperforms the other models in terms of prediction accuracy. In 2017, Obajemu et al [51] utilized a type-2 fuzzy logic system to establish a taxi time prediction model with the innovative introduction of speech information and, compared to the traditional one-layer fuzzy system, the method improves the taxi time prediction accuracy and generalization ability, with stronger robustness and accuracy. Subsequently, Chen [56] improved the previous work; after mathematically processing the influencing factors of taxi time delays, a multi-objective fuzzy rule-based system was added to the uncertainty factors in the aircraft taxiing process in the historical data in order to reduce the delays and conflicts in the taxiing process, which in turn made the taxi time prediction more accurate and resilient.…”