A two-sex model of human papillomavirus infection: Vaccination strategies and a case study

Gao, Shasha; Martcheva, Maia; Miao, Hongyu; Liang, Rong

doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111006

Cited by 10 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 55 publications

(99 reference statements)

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“…However, our simulations suggest that if girls-only programs are com-plemented with catch-up vaccination for adult females, such program has the potential to achieve HPV-associated cancers eradication as long as the coverage in females is maintained high for several years even if boys and males do not receive the vaccine. This finding is consistent with results in previous studies [5,12,16,25] which suggest that the maximum reduction in the prevalence of infection is always achieved by single-sex vaccination. As a consequence, one might think that if HPV diseases can be successfully eradicated by vaccinating only females (both girls and adults), then there is no need at all to include boys and adult males in HPV vaccination programs.…”

Section: Discussion and Concluding Remarkssupporting

confidence: 93%

“…Finally, the optimal profile for the time-dependent vaccination rates found in this work suggest that HPV vaccination programs should follow a hit-hard hit-early approach. In other words, the optimal vaccine deployment is to allocate as much vaccines as possible at the initial phase of the epidemic and once a high vaccination coverage is reached then gradually decrease vaccination rates to zero which agrees with the results in [25,39].…”

Section: Discussion and Concluding Remarkssupporting

confidence: 85%

“…In recent years, a number of mathematical modeling studies have been developed to investigate key epidemiological and clinical aspects of HPV infection, e.g. [1,2,5,9,20,19,24,25,35,40,39,48,47,46,50,55,54]. Although these and other relevant studies have greatly increased our knowledge about the natural history of HPV disease, ample opportunity remains for advancing our knowledge of HPV dynamics and guiding decision-makers in the implementation of immunization programs [31].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Modeling the transmission dynamics and vaccination strategies for human papillomavirus infection: An optimal control approach

Saldaña

Camacho-Gutíerrez

Villavicencio-Pulido

et al. 2022

Applied Mathematical Modelling

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Section: Discussion and Concluding Remarkssupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Discussion and Concluding Remarkssupporting

confidence: 85%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Modeling the transmission dynamics and vaccination strategies for human papillomavirus infection: An optimal control approach

Saldaña

Camacho-Gutíerrez

Villavicencio-Pulido

et al. 2022

Applied Mathematical Modelling

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“…Consequently, the rate of birth is approximately the rate of death, which allows us to get an estimation of the recruitment rate Λ = N 0 μ , measured in individuals per day. The other parameter values are listed in Table 1, with most of them chosen based on data fitting a model to COVID-19 cases [21].…”

Section: Numerical Investigationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An infectious disease model with asymptomatic transmission and waning immunity

Rong,

Li,

Gao

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Infectious diseases present persistent challenges to global public health, demanding a comprehensive understanding of their dynamics to develop effective prevention and control strategies. The presence of asymptomatic carriers, individuals capable of transmitting pathogens without displaying symptoms, challenges conventional containment approaches focused on symptomatic cases. Waning immunity, the decline in protective response following natural recovery or vaccination, introduces further complexity to disease dynamics. In this paper, we developed a mathematical model to investigate the interplay between these factors, aiming to inform strategies for the management of infectious diseases. We derived the basic reproduction number for the model and showed that the disease would die out when this number falls below 1. We obtained a formula to estimate the relative contributions of asymptomatic and symptomatic transmission to the basic reproduction number, which remains unchanged when vaccination is included in the model. Through computer simulations with parameter values tailored for COVID-19 and sensitivity analysis, we demonstrated that population susceptibility significantly impacts the timing and magnitude of infection peaks. Populations with lower susceptibility experience delayed and less severe outbreaks. Vaccination was shown to play a crucial role in disease control, with an increased vaccination rate, extended immunity, and heightened vaccine efficacy proving pivotal. However, the effectiveness of these strategies hinges on maintaining a low vaccine escape proportion. Taken together, this study underscores the need for multifaceted, adaptable approaches to infectious disease management, highlighting the central role of vaccination in mitigating disease spread. Further research and validation with disease-specific data will enhance parameter estimates, improve model predictions, and inform evidence-based disease control strategies.

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“…Despite scientists worldwide racing to develop antiviral drugs and vaccinations against COVID-19 having been recently distributed around the world, the global economy is experiencing the worst plunge in recent history amid fears of further deterioration of the COVID-19 situation [ 13 ]. Since the outbreak of COVID-19 was first detected in December 2019 in Wuhan, China [ 29 ], many authors have studied the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 by various means and methods [ 3 , 4 , 8 , 12 , 19 , 37 , 43 , 54 – 56 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A mathematical model reveals the influence of NPIs and vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant

Wang

et al. 2022

Nonlinear Dyn

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An SVEIR SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant model is proposed to provide some insights to coordinate non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination. Mathematically, we define the basic reproduction number and the effective reproduction number to measure the infection potential of Omicron variant and formulate an optimal disease control strategy. Our inversion results imply that the sick period of Omicron variant in the United States is longer than that of Delta variant in India. The decrease in the infectious period of the infection with infectiousness implies that the risk of hospitalization is reduced; but the increasing period of the infection with non-infectiousness signifies that Omicron variant lengthens the period of nucleic acid test being negative. Optimistically, Omicron’s death rate is only a quarter of Delta’s. Moreover, we forecast that the cumulative cases will exceed 100 million in the United States on February 28, 2022, and the daily confirmed cases will reach a peak on February 2, 2022. The results of parameters sensitivity analysis imply that NPIs are helpful to reduce the number of confirmed cases. In particular, NPIs are indispensable even if all the people were vaccinated when the efficiency of vaccine is relatively low. By simulating the relationships of the effective reproduction number , the vaccination rate and the efficacy of vaccine, we find that it is impossible to achieve the herd immunity without NPIs while the efficiency of vaccine is lower than . Therefore, the herd immunity area is defined by the evolution of relationships between the vaccination rate and the efficacy of vaccine. Finally, we present that the disease-induced mortality rate demonstrates the periodic oscillation and an almost periodic function is deduced to match the curve. A discussion completes the paper.

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A two-sex model of human papillomavirus infection: Vaccination strategies and a case study

Cited by 10 publications

References 55 publications

Modeling the transmission dynamics and vaccination strategies for human papillomavirus infection: An optimal control approach

Modeling the transmission dynamics and vaccination strategies for human papillomavirus infection: An optimal control approach

An infectious disease model with asymptomatic transmission and waning immunity

A mathematical model reveals the influence of NPIs and vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant

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