A tree-ring perspective on the past and future mass balance of a glacier in Tien Shan (Central Asia): an example from the Tuyuksu glacier, Kyrgyzstan

Abstract

Abstract. The Tien Shan glaciers, known as "Central Asia's Water Tower," have a direct influence on water resource management in downstream parched areas. The limited time periods of currently available observational climate datasets hamper an accurate examination of glacial changes in Central Asia in terms of long-term climate change implications. In this work, we analysed this change by combining tree-ring-based reconstructions of the Tuyuksu Glacier's high-altitude mass balance during the last 382 years with models of the future mass balance of this glacier until the year 2100 CE. The results show that mountain precipitation is an important force driving the cycles of the cryosphere, biosphere and hydrosphere in arid Central Asia. This driving force has broad coherence in spatiotemporal variation, with periodic cycles and decadal shifts caused by the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The multi-model mean in CMIP6 suggests a downward trend in glacier mass balance until 2100, but this trend will be moderated by increased precipitation. The findings of the study could help to explain how the glacial mass balance has evolved in the Tien Shan Mountains of Central Asia throughout time and its relationship to other geosphere layers.

A Long-Duration Glacier Change Analysis for the Urumqi River Valley, a Representative Region of Central Asia

“…There are two aspects to the study of systematic refinement of glacier change in a particular region: past systematic analyses and future change trends. The past period of glacier shrinkage is manifested in many aspects, such as reduction in number, area, and volume, while the mass balance is one of the most direct quantitative reflections of glacier accumulation and mass loss [8][9][10]. The traditional glaciological method of acquiring mass balance results using flower pole and snow pit observations is the most accurate method [11,12].…”