A top-down approach to identifying bull and bear market states

Abstract

A top-down approach to identifying bull and bear market states Hanna, A. (2018). A top-down approach to identifying bull and bear market states. International Review of Financial Analysis, 55, 93-110. https://doi.

The Gambler’s Fallacy, the Halo Effect, and the Familiarity Effect Based on Risk Profile: Bullish and Bearish Market in Indonesia Stock Exchange

“…Still, statistical tests show that investors may experience both of these behavioral biases. 147 Khalil et al (2016), Hanna (2018), Madaan & Singh (2019), & Tayyab, Hassan, and Jamil (2021) stipulate that previous trading outcomes are often used as references for making future investment decisions. As a result, investors who previously earned profits tend to reduce the amount they subsequently invest.…”

“…Differences in the investor's risk profile can also lead to different halo effect behavior for investors (Hunt, 2016;Madaan & Singh, 2019). A conservative risk profile in bullish markets will have a different halo effect behavior than in bearish conditions (Hanna, 2018;Leal, 2018). It will also occur in the other three risk profile categories: very conservative, moderate, and aggressive.…”

“…The capital markets' conditions also influence investor sentiment, leading to familiarity. Risk-averse investors in bullish markets tend to be aggressive in bearish ones (Hanna, 2018;Mehmood & Hanif, 2014). In bullish markets, investors may experience the familiarity effect because investors are more optimistic about the domestic capital markets and tend to be risk-averse.…”

“…Capital market conditions also play a role in influencing investor behavior. Investors are more likely to succeed in bullish than bearish markets (Hanna, 2018). Investors will trade excessively in bullish markets, rather than bearish markets, because stock prices tend to increase, making it easier to earn profits (Choi and Skiba, 2015).…”

Trend‐cycle Estimation Using Fuzzy Transform and Its Application for Identifying Bull and Bear Phases in Markets

“…These studies are then followed by many authors (e.g. Gonzalez et al 2006; Candelon et al 2008; Nyberg, 2013; Hanna, 2018; Hoepfner, 2018). Our investigation has also been inspired by these two papers.…”