A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

Abstract

BackgroundRoad traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control.ObjectivesThis study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling.Materials and MethodsIn this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years.ResultsThe mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years.ConclusionsThere was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

Epidemiology of mortality among road accident victims in the south of Kerman Province, Iran, from 2012 to 2015

“…The present study showed that most of the deceased were men, which is similar to findings of studies in Fars, Zanjan, Kermanshah, and Sistan, Iran (21)(22)(23)(24). Men in Iran, especially in low-income families, have a greater role in the household economy (24,25).…”

“…Most road accidents leading to death had occurred in the spring and autumn, which was consistent with the studies in Sistan and Baluchestan, Kermanshah, and Khuzestan, Iran (22,26,27). However, this finding was not in agreement with that of the study in Zanjan and on the Iranian police data, which reported that the highest rate of deaths due to traffic accidents occurred in the summer and winter, respectively (7,23). The lowest rate of deaths due to traffic accidents was related to the summer, which was not consistent with the results obtained in Sistan, Fars, Zanjan, Khuzestan, and Kermanshah, Iran, and from the Iranian police data (7, 21-23, 27, 28).…”

构建预测陕西省咸阳市日本脑炎疫情的季节性时间序列模型

“…It is assumed that each observation in the time series correlates with previous ones, which makes it possible to model a temporal structure and obtain a more reliable prediction, particularly for seasonal infections. In recent years, SARIMA models have been successfully employed to predict the incidence or death trends of malaria 11 and pneumonia 12 or daily patient numbers. [13][14] The principal objective of our study was to construct a SARIMA model by which the reported JE incidence in Xianyang, Shaanxi, China could be predicted.…”

Time Series Analysis for Assessing and Forecasting of Road Traffic Accidents - Case Studies

“…Applications of time series analysis in road traff c mortality and serious injuries are reported in [8], [9], [10], among others.…”