A time-series analysis of mortality and air temperature in Greater Beirut

El-Zein, Abbas; Tewtel-Salem, Mylene; Nehme, Gebran

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2004.02.027

Cited by 68 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…One of the reasons for not being able to construct the model was as follows: In many places of the world, a V-shaped temperature-mortality relation was observed [2,3]. Using this relation, heat-related excess mortality can be defined as the shaded area in Fig.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heat-related mortality risk model for climate change impact projection

Honda

Kondo

McGregor

et al. 2013

Environ Health Prev Med

155

107

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Objectives We previously developed a model for projection of heat-related mortality attributable to climate change. The objective of this paper is to improve the fit and precision of and examine the robustness of the model. Methods We obtained daily data for number of deaths and maximum temperature from respective governmental organizations of Japan, Korea, Taiwan, the USA, and European countries. For future projection, we used the Bergen climate model 2 (BCM2) general circulation model, the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B socioeconomic scenario, and the mortality projection for the 65?-year-old age group developed by the World Health Organization (WHO). The heat-related excess mortality was defined as follows: The temperature-mortality relation forms a V-shaped curve, and the temperature at which mortality becomes lowest is called the optimum temperature (OT). The difference in mortality between the OT and a temperature beyond the OT is the excess mortality. To develop the model for projection, we used Japanese 47-prefecture data from 1972 to 2008. Using a distributed lag nonlinear model (two-dimensional nonparametric regression of temperature and its lag effect), we included the lag effect of temperature up to 15 days, and created a risk function curve on which the projection is based. As an example, we perform a future projection using the above-mentioned risk function. In the projection, we used 1961-1990 temperature as the baseline, and temperatures in the 2030s and 2050s were projected using the BCM2 global circulation model, SRES A1B scenario, and WHO-provided annual mortality. Here, we used the ''counterfactual method'' to evaluate the climate change 123Environ Health Prev Med (2014) 19:56-63 DOI 10.1007 impact; For example, baseline temperature and 2030 mortality were used to determine the baseline excess, and compared with the 2030 excess, for which we used 2030 temperature and 2030 mortality. In terms of adaptation to warmer climate, we assumed 0 % adaptation when the OT as of the current climate is used and 100 % adaptation when the OT as of the future climate is used. The midpoint of the OTs of the two types of adaptation was set to be the OT for 50 % adaptation. Results We calculated heat-related excess mortality for 2030 and 2050. Conclusions Our new model is considered to be better fit, and more precise and robust compared with the previous model.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heat-related mortality risk model for climate change impact projection

Honda

Kondo

McGregor

et al. 2013

Environ Health Prev Med

155

107

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Many studies have observed that changes in average temperature have a larger impact on mortality among the elderly compared to younger people (Ballester et al 1997;Basu et al 2005;Carder et al 2005;Curriero et al 2002;Donaldson and Keatinge 2003;El-Zein et al 2004;Gouveia et al 2003;Hajat et al 2005;Hajat et al 2007;Ishigami et al 2008;Michelozzi et al 2000;Revich and Shaposhnikov 2008;Rocklöv and Forsberg 2008;The Eurowinter Group 1997). This difference has in part been attributed to the reduced ability of older adults to maintain core temperature.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Daily average temperature and mortality among the elderly: a meta-analysis and systematic review of epidemiological evidence

et al. 2011

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The impact of climate change on the health of vulnerable groups such as the elderly has been of increasing concern. However, to date there has been no meta-analysis of current literature relating to the effects of temperature fluctuations upon mortality amongst the elderly. We synthesised risk estimates of the overall impact of daily mean temperature on elderly mortality across different continents. A comprehensive literature search was conducted using MEDLINE and PubMed to identify papers published up to December 2010. Selection criteria including suitable temperature indicators, endpoints, study-designs and identification of threshold were used. A two-stage Bayesian hierarchical model was performed to summarise the percent increase in mortality with a 1°C temperature increase (or decrease) with 95% confidence intervals in hot (or cold) days, with lagged effects also measured. Fifteen studies met the eligibility criteria and almost 13 million elderly deaths were included in this meta-analysis. In total, there was a 2-5% increase for a 1°C increment during hot temperature intervals, and a 1-2 % increase in all-cause mortality for a 1°C decrease during cold temperature intervals. Lags of up to 9 days in exposure to cold temperature intervals were substantially associated with all-cause mortality, but no substantial lagged effects were observed for hot intervals. Thus, both hot and cold temperatures substantially increased mortality among the elderly, but the magnitude of heat-related effects seemed to be larger than that of cold effects within a global context.

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“…Two previous papers highlighted definitions and differences between heat illness (excess heat produced or decreased transfer of body heat to the environment due to loss of core temperature control), heat stress, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke (body core temperature over ∼40º C) (Ellis 1977;Jardine 2007). Twelve studies examined associations between increased temperatures in summer (cooling season) and/or winter (heating season) and changes in mortality (Schwartz 2005;Fouillet 2007;Kim et al 2006;Kyselý 2004;El-Zein et al 2004;Davis et al 2003;Donaldson et al 2003;Smoyer et al 2000;Maartens 1998;Kalkstein and Greene 1997;Wyndham and Fellingham 1978;Smoyer-Tomic and Rainham 2001), including adjustments for measured outdoor air pollution concentrations (particles, ozone) (Schwartz 2005). The trends varied when comparing the U.S. with northern Europe and South Africa.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Knowledge and awareness of heat-related morbidity among adult recreational endurance athletes

et al. 2010

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Adults have been increasingly motivated to compete in recreational endurance sports events. Amateurs may lack a complete understanding of recommended strategies for handling heat and humidity, making heat-related illnesses increasingly possible. This is compounded by global climate change and increasing average surface and air temperatures, especially in urban areas of industrialized nations in Europe and North America that have hosted most events to date. We conducted an on-line, secure survey at the 2nd Annual ING Georgia Marathon and Half-Marathon in Atlanta, Georgia, in 2008. We included previously validated questions on participant socio-demographics, training locations, and knowledge and awareness of heat-related illnesses. Participants were aware of heat illnesses, and of heat stroke as a serious form of heat stress. However, the majority, across age and gender, did not understand the potential severity of heat stroke. Furthermore, 1-in-5 participants did not understand the concept of heat stress as a form of heat-related illness, and how heat stress may result from buildup of muscle-generated heat in the body. Adult recreational endurance athletes are another susceptible, vulnerable population sub-group for applied research and public health educational interventions, especially in urban areas of industrialized nations in Europe and North America.

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A time-series analysis of mortality and air temperature in Greater Beirut

Cited by 68 publications

References 18 publications

Heat-related mortality risk model for climate change impact projection

Heat-related mortality risk model for climate change impact projection

Daily average temperature and mortality among the elderly: a meta-analysis and systematic review of epidemiological evidence

Knowledge and awareness of heat-related morbidity among adult recreational endurance athletes

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