A time series analysis of weather variables and all-cause mortality in the Kasena-Nankana Districts of Northern Ghana, 1995–2010

Abstract

IntroductionClimate and weather variability can have significant health consequences of increased morbidity and mortality. However, today the impact of climate and weather variability, and consequentially, of climate change on population health in sub-Saharan Africa is not well understood. In this study, we assessed the association of daily temperature and precipitation with daily mortality by age and sex groups in Northern Ghana.MethodsWe analysed daily mortality and weather data from 1995 to 2010. We adopted a time-series Poisson regression approach to examine the short-term association of daily mean temperature and daily mean precipitation with daily mortality. We included time factors and daily lagged weather predictors. The correlation between lagged weather predictors was also considered.ResultsFor all populations, a statistically significant association of mean daily temperature with mortality at lag days 0–1 was observed below and above the 25th (27.48°C) and 75th (30.68°C) percentiles (0.19%; 95% confidence interval CI: 0.05%, 0.21%) and (1.14%; 95% CI: 0.12%, 1.54%), respectively. We also observed a statistically significant association of mean daily temperature above 75th percentile at lag days 2–6 and lag days 7–13 (0.32%; 95% CI: 0.16%, 0.25%) and (0.31% 95% CI: 0.14%, 0.26%), respectively. A 10 mm increase in precipitation was significantly associated with a 1.71% (95% CI: 0.10%, 3.34.9%) increase in mortality for all ages and sex groups at lag days 2–6. Similar results were also observed at lag days 2–6 and 14–27 for males, 2.92% (95% CI: 0.80%, 5.09%) and 2.35% (95% CI: 0.28%, 4.45%).ConclusionShort-term weather variability is strongly associated with mortality in Northern Ghana. The associations appear to differ among different age and sex groups. The elderly and young children were found to be more susceptible to short-term temperature-related mortality. The association of precipitation with mortality is more pronounced at the short-term for all age and sex groups and in the medium short-term among males. Reducing exposure to extreme temperature, particularly among the elderly and young children, should reduce the number of daily deaths attributable to weather-related mortality.

Projections of rapidly rising surface temperatures over Africa under low mitigation

“…The few heat-health studies conducted in Africa have focused on acute exposure to heat (e.g. during heatwave events) [59][60][61][62][63].…”

Long-term trends in seasonality of mortality in urban Madagascar: the role of the epidemiological transition

“…As a result, few countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have high-quality data on causes of death, apart from geographically defined populations monitored in Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS). Some studies based on HDSS data in Africa have highlighted strong associations between temperature or rainfall and all-cause mortality but they were limited by the relatively short length of the periods covered, the absence of disaggregation by cause of death and their concentration in rural areas [12,13,17,18,[20][21][22].…”

Regional Projections of Extreme Apparent Temperature Days in Africa and the Related Potential Risk to Human Health

“…Exposure to high temperatures can lead to physical disorders including discomfort, fatigue, and heat stroke, and may also lead to death [ 4 ]. Many epidemiological studies have demonstrated an association between excess high temperature and increased mortality from cardiovascular, cerebrovascular and respiratory diseases, as well as increases in all-cause mortality [ 3 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 , 17 ]. The elderly, young children, and people with compromised health status and/or pre-existing diseases are especially vulnerable to negative health impacts from exposure to high temperatures [ 3 ].…”