A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India

Roxy, Mathew Koll; Ghosh, Subimal; Pathak, Amey; Athulya, R.; Mujumdar, Milind; Murtugudde, Raghu; Terray, Pascal; Rajeevan, M.

doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9

Cited by 479 publications

(340 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…Our results show global scaling relationships with DPT that are largely consistent with C-C, and in some instances super-C-C, scaling. Moreover, long-range moisture transports patterns (Roxy et al, 2017) associated with seasonality may affect changes in extreme precipitation as compared to the estimated changes by thermodynamic scaling. Moreover, long-range moisture transports patterns (Roxy et al, 2017) associated with seasonality may affect changes in extreme precipitation as compared to the estimated changes by thermodynamic scaling.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Observational Evidence of Strong Linkage Between Dew Point Temperature and Precipitation Extremes

Ali

Fowler

Mishra

2018

Geophysical Research Letters

114

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Using global station‐based observations of precipitation, near‐surface air temperature (SAT), and dew point temperature (DPT), we show that the negative scaling relationship found between extreme daily precipitation and SAT over the tropics is associated with the low seasonality in temperature. When using a binning technique or quantile regression, not accounting for seasonality in temperature produces a negative scaling for the majority of stations in the tropics, with higher temperatures associated with smaller precipitation extremes. After removing temperature seasonality, we find that most locations show a positive (median 5.2%/K) scaling with SAT and 96% of global locations exhibit positive (median 6.1%/K) scaling with DPT. Moreover, about 33% (22%) of the locations show super C‐C scaling (higher than 7%/K) with DPT (SAT). Our results show that the impact of warming on extreme precipitation (especially over the tropics) may be higher than previously thought.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Observational Evidence of Strong Linkage Between Dew Point Temperature and Precipitation Extremes

Ali

Fowler

Mishra

2018

Geophysical Research Letters

114

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“…The rate of SST increase for the period 1960-2009 reaches 0.12°C per decade, much stronger than the previous period of 1900-1950 (0.008°C per decade; Dinesh Kumar et al, 2016;D'Mello & Prasanna Kumar, 2018). This rapid warming brings an increased risk of extreme weather and climate events, such as floods (Roxy et al, 2017), heat waves (Trenberth & Fasullo, 2012), and cyclones (Murakami et al, 2017). This rapid warming brings an increased risk of extreme weather and climate events, such as floods (Roxy et al, 2017), heat waves (Trenberth & Fasullo, 2012), and cyclones (Murakami et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Recent Acceleration of Arabian Sea Warming Induced by the Atlantic‐Western Pacific Trans‐basin Multidecadal Variability

Sun

Kucharski

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Arabian Sea (AS) warming has been significantly accelerated since the 1990s, in particular in the spring season. Here we link the AS warming changes to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A set of Atlantic pacemaker experiments with a slab mixed‐layer ocean model successfully reproduces the AS spring multidecadal variability and its connection with the AMO. An atmospheric teleconnection from the Atlantic to the AS in the preceding winter and associated thermodynamic air‐sea feedback is found to be important. The teleconnection can be reestablished by the atmospheric model when the AMO sea surface temperature (SST) and its trans‐basin footprint over the western Pacific are prescribed simultaneously. The western Pacific SST warming associated with the AMO positive phase induces a Gill‐type Rossby wave over the AS, showing anomalously low pressures and converging southerlies that weaken winter northerlies. Thus, the wind‐evaporation‐SST feedback results in and maintains the AS warm SST anomalies to the subsequent spring.

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“…While CPC data could capture only the increasing trend over the Indian region, ERA does not capture any of these trends. A threefold rise in extreme precipitation events over central India has been recently reported (Roxy et al 2017;Goswami et al 2006), Over East Asia, a wave-like pattern with increasing, decreasing, and increasing trends from north to south China are observed. Except the ERA dataset the remaining five datasets display this feature.…”

Section: Decadal Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Intense rainfall events can lead to flash floods, often resulting in infrastructure damage, considerable impact on natural ecosystems and even human casualties. Over the Asian domain, the largest socioeconomic losses are linked to floods attributed to these extreme rainfall events (Roxy et al 2017;Vellore et al 2014Vellore et al , 2016Goswami et al 2006;Krishnan et al 2015;Pai and Sridhar 2015;Rajeevan et al 2008). Understanding and quantifying their magnitude for the present and how they may change in the future is of immense importance to the society.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of precipitation extremes over the Asian domain: observation and modelling studies

et al. 2018

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In this study, a comparison in the precipitation extremes as exhibited by the seven reference datasets is made to ascertain whether the inferences based on these datasets agree or they differ. These seven datasets, roughly grouped in three categories i.e. rain-gauge based (APHRODITE, CPC-UNI), satellite-based (TRMM, GPCP1DD) and reanalysis based (ERA-Interim, MERRA, and JRA55), having a common data period 1998-2007 are considered. Focus is to examine precipitation extremes in the summer monsoon rainfall over South Asia, East Asia and Southeast Asia. Measures of extreme precipitation include the percentile thresholds, frequency of extreme precipitation events and other quantities. Results reveal that the differences in displaying extremes among the datasets are small over South Asia and East Asia but large differences among the datasets are displayed over the Southeast Asian region including the maritime continent. Furthermore, precipitation data appear to be more consistent over East Asia among the seven datasets. Decadal trends in extreme precipitation are consistent with known results over South and East Asia. No trends in extreme precipitation events are exhibited over Southeast Asia. Outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulation data are categorized as high, medium and lowresolution models. The regions displaying maximum intensity of extreme precipitation appear to be dependent on model resolution. High-resolution models simulate maximum intensity of extreme precipitation over the Indian sub-continent, medium-resolution models over northeast India and South China and the low-resolution models over Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand. In summary, there are differences in displaying extreme precipitation statistics among the seven datasets considered here and among the 29 CMIP5 model data outputs.

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A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India

Cited by 479 publications

References 70 publications

Global Observational Evidence of Strong Linkage Between Dew Point Temperature and Precipitation Extremes

Global Observational Evidence of Strong Linkage Between Dew Point Temperature and Precipitation Extremes

Recent Acceleration of Arabian Sea Warming Induced by the Atlantic‐Western Pacific Trans‐basin Multidecadal Variability

Evaluation of precipitation extremes over the Asian domain: observation and modelling studies

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