A theory of technophysio evolution, with some implications for forecasting population, health care costs, and pension costs

Abstract

We argue that over the past 300 years human physiology has been undergoing profound environmentally induced changes made possible by numerous advances in technology. These changes, which we call technophysio evolution, increased body size by over 50%, and greatly improved the robustness and capacity of vital organ systems. Because technophysio evolution is still ongoing, it is relevant to forecasts of longevity and morbidity and, therefore, to forecasts of the size of the elderly population and pension and health care costs.

Will People Be Healthy Enough to Work Longer?

“…34 Nevertheless, consistent data are available from 1967-1982, 1983-1996, and 1997-2004. For the period 1983-1996 Figure 4 shows, the percent of those 45 to 64 with a disability declined from the early 1980s and through the mid-1990s.…”

Long-run trends of human aging and longevity

“…In other words, a time-invariant compensation effect of mortality would imply that better health care and nutrition or, more generally, improvements of the economic environment through technological progress have increased life expectancy "only" through improving somatic redundancy (for example, more healthy body cells ;Fogel 1994;Fogel and Costa 1997). In order to improve life span T , technological progress needs to have a bearing on λ, that is on the intrinsic rate of bodily decay.…”

“…During the first half of the twentieth century (and presumably also earlier in human history), the data support the notion of an invariant human life span of about 87-89 years. Observable improvements of life expectancy during that period originated from declining background mortality (sanitation, vaccination) and from a reduction of R in association of movement along the mortality compensation line, indicating better (initial) physiological conditions (better nutrition, e.g., Fogel and Costa 1997). Then, in the later twentieth century, "something" happened.…”

Hungry Children Age Faster

“…A large literature documents the impact of nutrition and disease exposure in childhood on adult height as a health indicator, see e.g. Fogel and Costa (1997); Case and Paxson (2008); and Bozzoli et al (2009). An economic theory establishing the link between childhood nutrition and adult body size is provided by Dalgaard andStrulik (2015, 2016).…”