A Theoretical Model for Trade Integration in the CIS Region

Гурова, И П

doi:10.2753/pet1061-1991570502

Cited by 8 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…The former refers to a scenario in which trade shifts from inefficient producers to efficient suppliers who are part of the new trade agreement, while the latter refers to a situation in which member countries shift their trade from efficient non-member countries to inefficient member countries, who simply because they are now part of the new agreement, their products would have become cheaper because tariffs are no longer being applied to their products. Thus, trade creation is viewed as welfare enhancing whilst trade diversion is welfare reducing [20][21][22]. According to Viner (1950), the process of trade creation and diversion occurs simultaneously, since several member countries will be trading concurrently with different member and non-member countries [16].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of AfCFTA on Food Security Sustainability: An Analysis of the Cereals Trade in the SADC Region

Pasara

Diko

2020

Sustainability

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The signing of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) has stimulated a lot of trade potential in Africa that could see the continent significantly improving its intra-trade levels, thereby boosting the economic welfare of Africans. In light of food security sustainability in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region, this paper employed the World Integrated Trade Solution, Software for Market Analysis and Restrictions on Trade (WITS-SMART) simulation model to assess the potential effects of the AfCFTA on trade in cereals. Cereals have been regarded as the most critical component of food security. The model indicated trading partners for each of the 15 SADC countries, their level of trade creation, trade diversion, consumer surplus, welfare and revenue effects of any regional trade agreement. The results indicated that the AfCFTA will only lead to positive outcomes in four (Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar and Namibia) of the fifteen SADC countries, with the rest remaining unchanged. In general, previously closed economies, that is, economies which were not part of a free trade agreement (FTA) or a deeper arrangement will stand to gain more than open economies because they are already opened up at the free trade level, which is equivalent to the AfCFTA. Thus, as far as cereals and food security is concerned, the AfCFTA will add minimal value. However, the overall value gains are likely to be greater when all food categories are included in the simulations. In general, the study recommends that African countries should deepen their integration levels to perhaps common markets where production factors, that is, labour and capital, become mobile. This will have multiplier effects in improving continental food security sustainability from a trade perspective.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of AfCFTA on Food Security Sustainability: An Analysis of the Cereals Trade in the SADC Region

Pasara

Diko

2020

Sustainability

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“…Index values can vary from 0 to a maximum of 100 in the case of one trading partner. Usually, the averaged value over a certain period is used to analyse the dynamics of the indicator, as it is subject to the influence of cyclical fluctuations and changes in relative prices on world markets (Gurova, 2009).…”

Section: ▶ Results and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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2022

Ekonomika APK

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Свідоцтво про державну реєстрацію друкованого засобу масової інформації серії КВ № 25122-15062 ПР Журнал входить до Переліку наукових фахових видань України Категорія «Б». Спеціальності: 051 «Економіка», 071 «Облік і оподаткування», 072 «Фінанси, банківська справа та страхування», 073 «Менеджмент», 076 «Підприємництво, торгівля та біржова діяльність» (наказ Міністерства освіти і науки України від 11 липня 2019 р. № 975) Журнал представлено у міжнародних наукометричних базах даних, репозитаріях та пошукових системах:

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“…Later, in 2002, it came to be known as the African Union (AU). Africa has experienced several forms of economic integration, starting with a free trade area (FTA), and it developed into a customs union and common market before it culminated in an economic union (Gurova, 2014). As of August 2018, the AU officially recognizes eight regional economic communities (RECs).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although theory and empirical evidence have suggested that an improvement in intra-regional trade is generally welfare-enhancing, free trade agreements typically lead to trade creation and diversion effects (AfDB, 2014; Gurova, 2014; Mold & Mukwaya, 2015). This implies that some countries and economic sectors within the AfCFTA can gain more, to the detriment of others, splitting nations and industrial sectors into gainers and losers (Duede & Zhorin, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Free Trade Area on Trade, Revenue and Welfare in Nigeria

Chukwu

Omeje

Ofoezie

et al. 2022

Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies

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This study offers an analytical evaluation of the effects of Free Trade Area (FTA) agreements on trade, revenue, and welfare in Nigeria. The study applied World-Integrated Trade Solution/Software for Market Analysis and Restrictions on Trade (WITS-SMART), anchored on a partial equilibrium model (PEM) for its simulations. The study simulated 100% tariff elimination on selected products under Harmonized System (HS)-2 classification code sourced from Trade Analysis Information Systems (TRAINS) and Common Format for Transient Data Exchange (COMTRADE). The study’s findings show that the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement will benefit Nigeria’s economy from trade creation estimated at US$8,860.419 million, including a favorable welfare gain to the value of US$740.571 million. Nevertheless, Nigeria will sustain losses in trade revenue, valued at US$6,142.061 million. The study recommends proficient revenue management and well-diversified revenue collection sources, such as improvement in Value Added Tax and Ad-Valorem duty, to cushion the effects of the revenue loss resulting from tariff elimination in the FTA.

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A Theoretical Model for Trade Integration in the CIS Region

Cited by 8 publications

References 1 publication

The Effects of AfCFTA on Food Security Sustainability: An Analysis of the Cereals Trade in the SADC Region

The Effects of AfCFTA on Food Security Sustainability: An Analysis of the Cereals Trade in the SADC Region

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Impact of Free Trade Area on Trade, Revenue and Welfare in Nigeria

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