A Ternary Diagram Approach to Investigate the Competition within the Bohai Sea Rim Multi-Port Group

Abstract

The Bohai Rim region constitutes the third prominent “growth pole” in China’s economic landscape, wherein the Bohai Rim multi-port system, encompassing Tianjin Port, Dalian Port, and Qingdao Port, engages in intense competition to establish itself as the foremost shipping hub in northern China. This study compares the ternary diagram method and employs the comprehensive concentration index (CCI), Lerner index (LI), and spatial shift-share analysis (SSSA) methods to delve into the intricacies of concentration, inequality, and evolving competitive dynamics within the Bohai Rim multi-port system over the four decades spanning from 1981 to 2023. The aim is to analyze the evolutionary trajectory and underlying dynamic mechanisms of this multipartite port system. The analysis delineates the development trajectory of the system into three stages: the dominant stage of Tianjin Port from 1981 to 1990, the efficiency competition stage from 1991 to 1996, and the ascendancy of Qingdao Port from 1997 to 2023. The results indicate that: (i) the Bohai Rim multi-port system exhibits a relatively low level of concentration, ensuring balanced growth within a non-monopolistic competitive environment; (ii) the internal competitiveness of the Bohai Rim multi-port system has gradually shifted from Tianjin Port to Qingdao Port, with Dalian Port experiencing steady development in its container transport capabilities. (iii) Dalian Port has witnessed a decline in container throughput since 2015, indicating a weakening competitive posture. These revelations suggest that Qingdao Port is a viable candidate for development into the northern China shipping center, leveraging its increasing competitiveness and strategic location. The method applied in this study may also prove beneficial for similar multi-port systems elsewhere.