A targeted e-learning approach to reduce student mixing during a pandemic

Abstract

11The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in widespread closure of schools and universities. These institutions 12 have turned to distance learning to provide educational continuity. Schools now face the challenge of how to 13 reopen safely and resume in-class learning. However, there is little empirical evidence to guide decision-14 makers on how this can be achieved. Here, we show that selectively deploying e-learning for larger classes is 15 highly effective at decreasing campus-wide opportunities for student-to-student contact, while allowing most 16 in-class learning to continue uninterrupted. We conducted a natural experiment at a large university that 17 implemented a series of e-learning interventions during the COVID-19 outbreak. Analyses of >24 million 18 student connections to the university Wi-Fi network revealed that population size can be manipulated by e-19 learning in a targeted manner according to class size characteristics. Student mixing showed accelerated growth 20 with population size according to a power law distribution. Therefore, a small e-learning dependent decrease in 21 population size resulted in a large reduction in student clustering behaviour. Our results show that e-learning 22 interventions can decrease potential for disease transmission while minimizing disruption to university 23 operations. Universities should consider targeted e-learning a viable strategy for providing educational 24 continuity during early or late stages of a disease outbreak. 25 26 Main 27The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had enormous socioeconomic impact 1 . In 5 months, 5.5 28 million COVID-19 cases have been confirmed, resulting in 350,000 deaths across 188 countries 2 . The severe 29 acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that causes COVID-19 is primarily spread when an 30 infected person sneezes or coughs 3 . The spread of infection can be slowed by public health measures that 31 reduce person-to-person contact. Nonpharmaceutical interventions that include restricted travel, staying at 32 home, and physical distancing can delay and flatten the peak of COVID-19 cases to avoid the overwhelming of 33 medical services 4-6 . Nonpharmaceutical interventions therefore play a critical role in controlling the spread of 34 disease until effective vaccines or drugs are available 7 . 35 School closure is a key strategy for controlling the spread of infectious diseases 7-9 . Empirical and 36 modelling studies show that closing schools and universities can suppress COVID-19 transmission when 37 combined with other nonpharmaceutical interventions 5,6,10 . The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in an 38 unprecedented number of school and university closures, affecting over 1.2 billion learners worldwide 11 . 39Consequently, a massive shift from classroom learning to distance learning has occurred 12 . This has created 40 great strain on educational institutions which function not only as places of learning, but also as major 41 employers and drivers of local economies. It is therefore important to con...