A system dynamics model for analysing the eco-aquaculture system of integrated aquaculture park in Malaysia with policy recommendations

Isa, Siti Hanani; Ramlee, Mohd Noor Afiq; Lola, Muhamad Safiih; Ikhwanuddin, Mhd; Azra, Mohamad Nor; Abdullah, Mohd Tajuddin; Zakaria, Syerrina; Ibrahim, Yahaya

doi:10.1007/s10668-020-00594-4

Cited by 9 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…Overall, the BAU scenario reflects a growth-oriented approach with continuous expansion in shrimp aquaculture. Another study in Malaysia with a similar approach predicted a similar increase in shrimp farms over the next 30 years (Isa et al 2021).…”

Section: Model Validationmentioning

confidence: 77%

“…Driven by economic incentives, shrimp farmers often aim to expand their shrimp ponds by resorting to deforestation. For example, in Setiu, Terengganu State, Malaysia, economic motives played a important role in the conversion of land to aquaculture (Isa et al 2021). The profit gained from shrimp farming incentivizes farmers to further convert more mangrove areas to shrimp ponds (Arquitt et al 2003, Arquitt et al 2005.…”

Section: Economics Sectormentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This upward trend persists until it reaches a second peak value of 14,250 (± 0.336) billion VND (US$ 570 million) in 2050. Similarly, aquaculture expansion also led to increased income for farmers in Malaysia (Isa et al 2021).…”

Section: Shrimp Gdpmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, prior investigations often utilized static models to evaluate the relationship between aquaculture and the environment. To achieve sustainable development in aquaculture, it is essential to balance ecological and economic advantages (Isa et al 2021). Thus, the dynamic and interconnected nature of the environment and economic activities must be considered.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…SDM is a methodology that allows for the simultaneous evaluation of multiple modules as well as stock and flow variables within a system through a set of simultaneous difference equations (Bala et al 2016). Previous research also adopted SDM to acquire insights into the complexity and temporal dynamics of coastal ecosystems (Mavrommati et al 2013, Downing et al 2014, Nila Rekha et al 2015, Huanhuan et al 2016, You et al 2018, Isa et al 2021. The SDM model in this study was segmented into sectors encompassing mangrove areas, carbon sinks, shrimp ponds, economics, and employment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing the interconnected effects of policy interventions on shrimp farming expansion and mangrove ecosystems through system dynamics

Anh

2024

Environ. Res. Commun.

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Since the early 2000s, Ca Mau has experienced a rapid boom in shrimp farming, leading to the conversion of mangroves into shrimp ponds and impeding mangrove forest conservation. Despite its negative environmental impacts, shrimp aquaculture remains vital to Ca Mau's economy by providing employment opportunities and contributing to the province’s gross domestic product. This study constructed a system dynamic model to analyze the complex system of shrimp aquaculture and mangrove forests under two development scenarios: the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario and the Policy scenario. In the BAU scenario, shrimp aquaculture will continue to expand, resulting in the conversion of more mangroves into ponds and a decrease in Ca Mau’s mangrove forest to 70,349 (± 888.801) hectares in 2050. However, this expansion will bolster rural employment and the province's economy, generating 14,250 (± 0.336) billion VND (US$ 570 million) in 2050. Conversely, in the Policy scenario, stabilizing shrimp areas at 280,000 hectares as a policy target will regulate mangrove conversion, allowing mangroves to regenerate (77,016 (± 687.155) hectares in 2050) and enhancing carbon storage (65x10^6 (± 0.58x10^6) MgC in 2050). However, challenges arise in the Policy scenario concerning potential economic stagnation, conflicts with other development priorities, and rural job losses. Officials must consider more than just the area of shrimp ponds to achieve sustainable development. Effective land use strategies should be implemented to ensure equilibrium between shrimp aquaculture and mangroves. Diversifying economic activities and promoting alternative livelihoods can mitigate the dependence on shrimp farming and offset the effects of policy interventions.

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Section: Model Validationmentioning

confidence: 77%