A System Dynamics Approach to Valorize Overripe Figs in the Brewing of Artisanal Beer

Abstract

Craft beer production has grown extensively worldwide. The variety of products and grains that can be used in production make this artisanal product unique. In this study, we propose a system dynamics model that allows for the evaluation of different production scenarios in which figs are used as the main ingredient. This research is inspired by the real case of small fig producers in Valle del Mayo in Navojoa, Sonora, Mexico, who, in 2020, took on the challenge of creating a processing factory for fig-derived products. This paper presents the development and application of a system dynamics approach to model the entire supply chain of overripe figs, i.e., figs that cannot be marketed in prime quality but can still be used in the production of derivative products. The method used for its development encompasses the following stages: (1) defining the craft beer supply chain variables; (2) elaborating on causal diagrams; (3) producing model stock and flow diagrams; (4) model validation; (5) sensitivity analysis and scenario evaluations; and (6) building a graphical user interface (GUI). The proposed model allows managers to assess several production policies under various assumptions of capacity and beer demand, demonstrating its value as an effective tool for strategic decision making.