A System Dynamic Model of Drinking Events: Multi‐Level Ecological Approach

Abstract

Drinking events are dynamic. The interactions of individuals, groups, and the environment as they relate to drinking behaviour are overwhelmingly complex. This paper presents an empirically grounded dynamic conceptual model to better understand drinking events. Using a collaborative mixed‐methods approach, we developed an aggregated system dynamic model of drinking events. The process began with identification of system elements and boundaries. Once the first aspects of the model were completed, we constructed a causal loop diagram, an aggregated causal loop diagram, and stock and flow diagrams. Finally, we developed and ran computer simulations of the dynamical models. The model presented here can be used to guide future agent‐based, system dynamics, or differential equation‐based models. Such models can help inform future empirical work and modelling to increase the understanding of drinking events and provide solutions to the problems that happen proximal to these events. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Promise of Systems Science in Health Behavior Research: The Example of Studying Drinking Events

“…System models typically include domains (or parts), at multiple levels of abstraction, which are interconnected and influence each other over time (Meadows, 2008). Although systems can be strictly linear, complex systems tend to have feedback loops that result in bidirectional causation and non-linear outcomes (see Clapp et al, 2018). One feature of complex systems of particular interest for health behavior intervention research is the notion of "leverage points," which represent strategic places in complex systems where an intervention will likely lead to a large change in the behavior of the system (Meadows, 1999;Stokols, 2000).…”

“…He explained that the modeling process would be an intensive and joint effort that would require time. Our collaboration in developing system dynamics models of drinking events has been described elsewhere (Clapp et al, 2018). For the purposes of this paper it's enough to note that for the past four or so years, Kevin's team and my team have worked to develop and refine a complete dynamical model of the drinking event system.…”

“…For the purposes of this paper it's enough to note that for the past four or so years, Kevin's team and my team have worked to develop and refine a complete dynamical model of the drinking event system. Much of this work has been published in engineering journals Giraldo, Passino, Clapp & Ruderman, 2017;Gonzalez Villasanti, Passino, Clapp & Madden, 2017) with the most accessible piece detailing the conceptual model being Clapp et al, 2018. Conceptually, this work addressed numerous questions generated by our earlier field work. Over the course of our collaboration, we modeled the various levels of abstraction in our model-pharmacokinetic, psychological, social, and environmental-independently and then finally as a complete system.…”

Examining the social ecology of a bar-crawl: An exploratory pilot study

“…Despite this, alcohol research and tests of preventive interventions at the event level comprise a relatively small niche in the literature [ 2 ]. As noted by Clapp et al [ 3 ], approaches to studying drinking events have advanced little over the past thirty years.…”

“…Conceptually, the social ecology of drinking events is complex and dynamic [ 3 4 5 ]. Systems dynamics models [ 4 5 ] based on field data have illustrated biological factors, (e.g., gender, body weight, etc.…”