A survey of the impact of summer droughts in southern and eastern England, 1200–1700

Abstract

Abstract. Droughts pose a climatic hazard that had profound impacts on past societies. Using documentary sources, this paper studies the occurrence and impacts of spring–summer droughts in pre-industrial England from 1200 to 1700. The types of records, source availability and changes in record keeping over time are described, and an overview of droughts in those 500 years is provided. The focus lies on a structural survey over the drought impacts most relevant to human livelihood. This includes the agricultural and pastoral sectors of agrarian production, health, the fire risk to settlements, and the drop in water levels or dwindling of water supplies. Due to the specific characteristics of wheat cultivation in medieval and early modern England, the grain production was comparatively resilient to drought, whereas livestock farming was under threat when rainfall fell noticeably below average. Nonetheless, the most important problem in warm and dry summers was the risk to health. Partly steeply raised mortality levels were associated with these conditions during the study period because malaria, gastrointestinal disease and plague showed an affinity to heat and drought. Adaptation strategies to reduce the stress posed by summer droughts are included in the study.

The impact of drought on northern European pre-industrial agriculture

“…de Toro et al (2015), in a study of the worst harvest losses in Scania between 1965 and 1990, found that all of the largest harvest losses for spring crops were associated with very dry conditions in the May–July period, sometimes combined with an extremely wet harvest season (August–September); these results are strikingly similar to those obtained here. Autumn rye varieties, on the other hand, have been seen as more drought-resistant (Pribyl, 2020; Pribyl and Cornes, 2020b). Even in the yearly forms sent out by Tabellverket spring crops were singled out in comparison with winter rye as particularly badly affected by drought.…”

“…Utterström (1955) and Michaelowa (2001) both stipulated that colder conditions were more detrimental for livestock than for crops in northern and northwestern Europe. Pribyl andCornes (2020a, 2020b) and Pribyl (2020) have shown that hay production in England was severely impacted by droughts. While the available data is more limited in extent, this study will consider the impact of drought on fodder production in the last five decades of the study period, ca 1860-1910. This study builds on previous research by statistically assessing the agrometeorological risk of drought for crop and fodder harvests, as well as on regional grain prices.…”

“…Huhtamaa (2018) has also noted how drought caused regular harvest losses in southern Finland before the 20th century, at least on a local level. Pribyl andCornes (2020a, 2020b), Pribyl (2020), and Stone (2014) have surveyed historical droughts in medieval and early modern England and found that the most extreme droughts threatened to turn into widespread harvest failures, but less extreme droughts still posed a threat to spring crops, like barley and oats. Wheat was sensitive to excessive wetness but more resilient in the face of droughts, allowing English farmers to hedge against both wet and dry years by growing both more drought-resilient wheat as well as spring barley and oats that were more resilient to wetter conditions.…”

“…The frequency and impact of droughts on pre-industrial agriculture in northern Europe is an under-studied subject. As Pribyl (2020) notes, much more effort has been focused on studying the effects of cold conditions or excessive wetness (see also Ljungqvist et al, 2021). This is in many cases justifiable, considering the evidence that the main agrometeorological risks for large parts of northern Europe like Finland or northern Scotland have historically been too-cold growing seasons and autumn frosts (Holopainen et al, 2012; Huhtamaa and Helama, 2017a; Martin et al, 2023; Parry, 1978; Parry and Carter, 1985).…”

Large Fires and Climatic Variability in Urban Europe, 1500–1800

“…In addition, paleoclimatologists have come up with a wide range of proxy measures, such as tree ring data, the dates of harvests, evidence of advances and retreats of glaciers, river and lake depths and archaeological material. 5 Most attention, understandably, has been devoted to the overall cooling trend and to its consequences for European society, and only recently have droughts begun to attract attention (Garnier 2019;Pribyl 2020;Przybylak et al 2020;Leijonhufvud and Retsö 2021). Unfortunately, the nature and quality of the sources varies considerably from place to place, and more research has been done in some regions than in others.…”