“…Second, totally nine distributions are conducted to model the characters of the dry bulk return distribution: Normal, SN, ST, GED, SGED, SST, HYP, GHST and NIG, then we provide empirical evidence on whether the alternative distributions, some of which have significant advantages over those commonly used distributions on describing the tail phenomena of dry bulk returns, could improve the VaR prediction accuracy in dry bulk shipping markets. Furthermore, 1 As the forecast time horizon expanded, the performance of risk forecasting model will be greatly reduced, and risk managers generally pay more attention to short-term risk (Hung, Lee & Liu; 2008), Therefore, this paper sets the forecast period to 1 day, that is, calculates the VaR for one-day-ahead.…”