A survey of exoplanet phase curves with Ariel

Charnay, Benjamin; Mendonça, Joao M.; Kreidberg, Laura; Cowan, Nicolas B.; Taylor, Jake; Bell, Taylor J.; Demangeon, Olivier; Edwards, Billy; Haswell, Carole A.; Morello, Giuseppe; Mugnai, Lorenzo V.; Pascale, Enzo; Tinetti, Giovanna; Tremblin, Pascal; Zellem, Robert T.

doi:10.48550/arxiv.2102.06523

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 90 publications

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“…to exoplanet phase curves, observing a planet throughout its entire orbit (e.g. Stevenson et al 2017;Changeat et al 2021a;Dang et al 2021;May et al 2021), and studies are underway to find the best targets for phase curve studies with Ariel (Charnay et al 2021;Moses et al 2021). Additionally, this time could be utilised to observe small, rocky worlds which may host secondary atmospheres, as outlined in E19.…”

Section: Discussion Conclusion and Future Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Ariel Target List: The Impact of TESS and the Potential for Characterising Multiple Planets Within a System

Edwards,

Tinetti

2022

Preprint

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The ESA Ariel mission has been adopted for launch in 2029 and will conduct a survey of around one thousand exoplanetary atmospheres during its primary mission life. By providing homogeneous datasets, with a high SNR and wide wavelength coverage, Ariel will unveil the atmospheric demographics of these far-away worlds, helping to constrain planet formation and evolution processes on a galactic scale. Ariel seeks to undertake a statistical survey of a diverse population of planets and, therefore, the sample of planets from which this selection can be made is of the utmost importance. While many suitable targets have already been found, hundreds more will be discovered before the mission is operational. Previous studies have used predictions of exoplanet detections to forecast the available planet population by the launch date of Ariel, with the most recent noting that the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) alone should provide over a thousand potential targets. In this work, we consider the planet candidates found to date by TESS to show that, with the addition of already confirmed planets, Ariel will already have a more than sufficient sample to choose its target list from once these candidates are validated. We showcase the breadth of this population as well as exploring, for the first time, the ability of Ariel to characterise multiple planets within a single system. Comparative planetology of worlds orbiting the same star, as well as across the wider population, will undoubtedly revolutionise our understanding of planet formation and evolution.

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Section: Discussion Conclusion and Future Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Ariel Target List: The Impact of TESS and the Potential for Characterising Multiple Planets Within a System

Edwards,

Tinetti

2022

Preprint

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“…While not discussed here, Ariel has a fourth tier to account for targets or observations that do not fit into the main structure of the survey. Much of this time might be dedicated to exoplanet phase curves, observing a planet throughout its entire orbit (e.g., Stevenson et al 2017;Changeat et al 2021a;Dang et al 2022;May et al 2021), and studies are underway to find the best targets for phase curve studies with Ariel (Charnay et al 2021;Moses et al 2021). Additionally, this time could be utilized to observe small, rocky worlds that may host secondary atmospheres, as outlined in E19.…”

Section: Discussion Conclusion and Future Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Ariel Target List: The Impact of TESS and the Potential for Characterizing Multiple Planets within a System

Edwards

Tinetti

2022

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The ESA Ariel mission has been adopted for launch in 2029 and will conduct a survey of around 1000 exoplanetary atmospheres during its primary mission life. By providing homogeneous data sets with a high signal-to-noise ratio and wide wavelength coverage, Ariel will unveil the atmospheric demographics of these faraway worlds, helping to constrain planet formation and evolution processes on a galactic scale. Ariel seeks to undertake a statistical survey of a diverse population of planets; therefore, the sample of planets from which this selection can be made is of the utmost importance. While many suitable targets have already been found, hundreds more will be discovered before the mission is operational. Previous studies have used predictions of exoplanet detections to forecast the available planet population by the launch date of Ariel, with the most recent noting that the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) alone should provide over 1000 potential targets. In this work, we consider the planet candidates found to date by TESS to show that, with the addition of already confirmed planets, Ariel will already have a more than sufficient sample to choose its target list from once these candidates are validated. We showcase the breadth of this population, as well as exploring, for the first time, the ability of Ariel to characterize multiple planets within a single system. Comparative planetology of worlds orbiting the same star, as well as across the wider population, will undoubtedly revolutionize our understanding of planet formation and evolution.

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“…In this work we have shown that hierarchical models are useful when analyzing repeated measurements from a single target, or when doing comparative exoplanetology studies of many targets. Next generation telescopes like James Webb and Ariel will make repeated measurements of certain targets, and will both carry out photometric and spectroscopic transit, eclipse, and phase curve surveys for a variety of targets (Bean et al 2018;Tinetti et al 2018;Charnay et al 2021). This will allow for atmospheric characterization of potentially thousands of more exoplanets, from Earth-like planets to ultra-hot Jupiters, and we recommend that these comparative surveys incorporate hierarchical modelling to make measurements and predictions that are as robust as possible.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric characterization of hot Jupiters using hierarchical models of Spitzer observations

Keating,

Cowan

2021

Preprint

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The field of exoplanet atmospheric characterization is trending towards comparative studies involving many planets, and using hierarchical modelling is a natural next step. Here we demonstrate two use cases. We first use hierarchical modelling to quantify variability in repeated observations, by reanalyzing a suite of ten Spitzer secondary eclipse observations of the hot Jupiter XO-3b. We compare three models: one where we fit ten separate eclipse depths, one where we use a single eclipse depth for all ten observations, and a hierarchical model. By comparing the Widely Applicable Information Criterion (WAIC) of each model, we show that the hierarchical model is preferred over the others. The hierarchical model yields less scatter across the suite of eclipse depths, and higher precision on the individual eclipse depths, than does fitting the observations separately. We do not detect appreciable variability in the secondary eclipses of XO-3b, in line with other analyses. Finally, we fit the suite of published dayside brightness measurements from Garhart et al. ( 2020) using a hierarchical model. The hierarchical model gives tighter constraints on the individual brightness temperatures and is a better predictive model, according to the WAIC. Notably, we do not detect the increasing trend in brightness temperature ratios versus stellar irradiation reported by Garhart et al. (2020) and Baxter et al. (2020). Although we tested hierarchical modelling on Spitzer eclipse data of hot Jupiters, it is applicable to observations of smaller planets like hot neptunes and super earths, as well as for photometric and spectroscopic transit or phase curve observations.

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A survey of exoplanet phase curves with Ariel

Cited by 3 publications

References 90 publications

The Ariel Target List: The Impact of TESS and the Potential for Characterising Multiple Planets Within a System

The Ariel Target List: The Impact of TESS and the Potential for Characterising Multiple Planets Within a System

The Ariel Target List: The Impact of TESS and the Potential for Characterizing Multiple Planets within a System

Atmospheric characterization of hot Jupiters using hierarchical models of Spitzer observations

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