A SuperLearner approach to predicting diabetic kidney disease upon the initial diagnosis of T2DM in hospital

Abstract

Background Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is a serious complication of diabetic mellitus (DM) and is asymptomatic until the advanced stage. We developed and validated a predictive model for DKD in patients with an initial diagnosis of type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) based on real-world data. Methods Data from 3,291 patients (1740 men, 1551 women) newly diagnosed with T2DM at Ningbo Municipal Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine (2011–2023) were retrospectively collected. Data were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. Forty-six readily available medical characteristics at initial diagnosis of T2DM from the electronic medical record (EMR) were used to develop prediction models based on linear, non-linear, and SuperLearner approaches. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC). Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) was used to interpret the best-performing models. Results Of the 3291 participants, 563 (17.1%) were diagnosed with DKD during a median follow-up of 2.53 years. The SuperLearner model had the highest AUC (0.7138, 95% CI [0.673, 0.7546]) for the holdout internal validation set in predicting any DKD stage. Top-ranked features were WBC_Cnt*, Neut_Cnt, Hct, and Hb. High WBC_Cnt, low Neut_Cnt, high Hct, and low Hb levels were associated with an increased risk of developing DKD. Conclusions We developed and validated a DKD risk prediction model for patients with newly diagnosed T2DM. Using routinely available clinical measurements, the SuperLearner model can predict DKD during hospital visits. Prediction accuracy and SHAP-based model interpretability may help improve early detection, targeted interventions, and prognosis of patients with DM.