A Successful Process for Embracing Uncertainty and Mitigating Risk -From Geological Understanding to Development Plan Optimization of a Saudi Complex Reservoir

Elrafie, Emad A.; Zabalza-Mezghani, I.; Abbas, Raja Tariq; Kozlov, Y.; Craghill, Rod

doi:10.2118/117633-ms

Cited by 8 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…The second type of decisions are tactics, lsuch as well spacing and orientation, well types, vertical, horizontal, maximum reservoir contact (MRC) and well completions using smart tools. The third type of decisions are operations, like pressure maintenance levels, gas recycling fraction, reservoir voidage replacement balancing, workovers versus smart-well policies and well operating parameters (Al-Qahtani et al 2008;Elrafie et al 2008a).…”

Section: Event Solution (Optimized Field Development Plans)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Overview of Saudi Aramco's Intelligent Field Program

et al. 2010

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Recent advancement in well technologies, communications and field instrumentation has made it possible to achieve total asset awareness and optimize operations over the field's development lifecycle. This is achieved by leveraging fields' real-time data for continuous monitoring and right-time response throughout the development processes. Right-time response has two components: Fast Interventions being done today as a product of an intra-process optimization, and Strategic Interventions based on more detailed modeling, discussed in the next steps section. The results of this integration have led to optimized drilling operations and well placements, increased production rates, and improved reservoir management and production operations. Real-time integration in the business processes, in turn, has introduced further opportunities for higher hydrocarbon recoveries and lower operating costs and capital expenditures.

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Section: Event Solution (Optimized Field Development Plans)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Overview of Saudi Aramco's Intelligent Field Program

et al. 2010

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“…History matching consumes significant amount of time in any typical study. Although many approaches for history matching under uncertainty and automatic (or semi-automatic) history matching have appeared recently (both in literature and in commercial software programs), history matching still takes significant amount of time 16 . The following presents a 5-step systematic procedure that can be employed efficiently to achieve reliable history matching.…”

Section: Use Of Indicators To Select New Well Locationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimizing Simulation Studies for Gas Condensate Field Development and Management

El-Banbi

2010

Proceedings of North Africa Technical Conference and Exhibition

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Two field case histories to illustrate the techniques in simulation of gas condensate fields for field development and reservoir management are presented with emphasis on how to speed up the study work without reducing the accuracy of the results. One field case has been chosen as a "green field" development case, and the other as "mature" gas condensate redevelopment. Both fields were near critical reservoirs and an integrated approach was followed in developing the static and dynamic models.For the green field case, the model was used to suggest new well locations and forecast production. For the mature field case, the model was used to optimize the performance of the field, increase recovery factor, and accelerate production. Several techniques were employed to facilitate the history matching and prediction runs. These techniques included the use of Modified Black Oil (MBO) approach, breaking down the model into smaller sectors to take advantage of isolated fault blocks and geological layers, a systematic procedure for history matching, and the involvement of field operation guidelines in designing the prediction runs. These techniques resulted in significant time savings in the study and allowed the study team to dedicate most of their time and effort to field development optimization. The model was changed to compositional model to investigate the effect of gas cycling and compare it to other alternative development plans. A detailed economical model was also built and coupled with prediction runs to select the most economical development plan.

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Innovated Simulation History Matching Approach Enabling Better Historical Performance Match and Embracing Uncertainty in Predictive Forecasting

et al. 2009

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The purpose of the simulation history match phase in a study is to achieve a simulation model calibrated to historical performance for predictive production forecasting while preserving reservoir understanding in terms of reservoir characterization and fluid flow mechanisms. The classical history match simulation approach involves running a number of history match simulation cases with modified simulation model variables to obtain only one of the many probable match models to the field data. SPE 120958Starting in the 90s, major oil and gas companies engaged in the concept of uncertainty in field exploration, reservoir characterization 5 and development 4 . The scale, variety and complexity of uncertainty factors from seismic to economics, however, has deterred even the most determined to conclude a practical integrated uncertainty and risk modeling solution 6 . Indeed, most known uncertainty management techniques consider only two possible approaches, namely, a deterministic realization to reflect reservoir physics and flow mechanisms with low and high values for all variables (i.e. uncertainty boundaries). Secondly, a probabilistic technique that encompasses all uncertain factors ranges with lesser detailed attention on reservoir physics and understanding. This paper describes the innovative Saudi Aramco Event Solution process approach to jointly manage and model uncertainty and risk through an integrated static, dynamic and economic field development strategy process. This approach that lies between a conventional deterministic and a fully probabilistic model approach, handles uncertainty through a variable elimination and narrowing down methodology. The Event Solution process involves handling uncertainty through many stages (i.e. static modeling, history match, well design and prediction stages). This paper presents the application of an innovated history match approach that provides all project stakeholders with a shared understanding of critical and non critical uncertainties (static and dynamic) in history match as carried forward to prediction under uncertainty forecasting.

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A Successful Process for Embracing Uncertainty and Mitigating Risk -From Geological Understanding to Development Plan Optimization of a Saudi Complex Reservoir

Cited by 8 publications

References 11 publications

Overview of Saudi Aramco's Intelligent Field Program

Overview of Saudi Aramco's Intelligent Field Program

Optimizing Simulation Studies for Gas Condensate Field Development and Management

Innovated Simulation History Matching Approach Enabling Better Historical Performance Match and Embracing Uncertainty in Predictive Forecasting

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