A Substantial Bias in Nonparametric Tests for Periodicity in Geophysical Data

Stigler, Stephen M.; Wagner, Melissa

doi:10.1126/science.238.4829.940

Cited by 63 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Some claimed falsity in their statistical tests (Noma & Glass 1987;Stigler & Wagner 1987), or bias in the selection of data (Patterson & Smith 1987), or the timescale definitions (Hoffmann 1985) 9 That the K/T boundary was caused by cosmic events was also questioned (Clemens et al 1981;Hallam 1987).…”

Section: Periodic Extinctionsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Orbital forcing timescales: an introduction

House

1995

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A brief review is given of orbital patterns affecting the Earth which may be of use in establishing, for long or short periods, orbital forcing timescales (OFT). The metronomic variations of the Earth-Moon system and of the Earth-Sun orbital patterns produce gravitational and temperature effects which alter the physical environment on the Earth’s surface. These give an interpenetrating effect of forcing cycles ranging from twice daily tides, day-night alternations, various tidal patterns and the annual solar pattern. All of these have been used palaeontologically to give precision to short-term age determination in the past. It is cycles of the Milankovitch band which are showing promise of enabling new practical timescales to be established for parts of geological time. These depend on changes in the Earth-Sun distance (perihelion and precession cycles of 19 and 23 ka at the present time), changes in the tilt of the Earth’s axis with respect to the Earth’s orbit round the Sun (the obliquity cycles of 41 and 54 ka), and changes in the geometry of the Earth’s orbit around the Sun (eccentricity cycles of 106 and 414 ka). Since the number of days in the year have changed through time; so have the periods of the perihelion and precession cycles. There is increasing evidence that small-scale sedimentary rhythmic couplets, often grouped into bundles, may represent the effect of some of these; often the precessional couplets are grouped into bundles of five or so within the lower eccentricity period. The disentangling of the interpenetrating cycles to produce an OFT is an exciting problem and challenge for palaeobiology and sedimentology. These should enable numerical dates to be given to biostratigraphic and chronostratigraphic timescales and eventually enable many earth processes to be analysed in real time. 26 Ma oscillations related to the Cosmic Year ( c. 260 Ma) have been invoked to explain periodic mass extinctions in the fossil record. But evidence is presented to suggest such extinctions are not, in fact, periodic.

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Section: Periodic Extinctionsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Orbital forcing timescales: an introduction

House

1995

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“…Delsemme 1987, Matese andWhitmire 1996). The case for periodicities has recently come under severe criticism (Stigler and Wagner 1987, Jetsu 1997, Jetsu and Pelt 2000, to which we shall return below.…”

Section: A Survey Of Neocatastrophic Regulation Mechanismsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Neocatastrophism and the milky way astrobiological landscape

Vukotić

Ćirković

2008

SERBIAN ASTRON J

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The number and distribution of habitable planets in the Milky Way is one of the foremost problems of contemporary astrobiological research. We investigate the effects of applying general neocatastrophic paradigm to the evolution of the Galactic Habitable Zone. In this paper, we investigate the limits of simple, 1-dimensional astrobiological models, and consider the role of regulation mechanisms in shapening the "astrobiological landscape". We show that the transition from predominantly gradualist to predominantly (neo)catastrophist history of our Galaxy leads to the build-up of large-scale correlations between habitable sites, offering possible keys to such important problems as Carter's "anthropic" argument and Fermi's paradox. In addition, we consider the possibilities for extending the present class of models into spatially realistic 3-dimensional case via probabilistic cellular automata.

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“…periodicity. Though the periodic interpretation of these data has been questioned on a variety of grounds (Kitchell and Pena, 1984;Hoffman, 1985;Connor, 1985;Stigler andWagner, 1987, 1988;Stigler, 1987;Harper, 1987;Patterson and Smith, 1987), many astronomers and astrophysicists, as well as paleontologists, consider the magnitude of the time scale involved to strongly implicate either solar system or galactic processes as causal agents (Gould, 1985;Hut and others, 1987, and references therein).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Effects of late Eocene impacts on planktic foraminifera

MacLeod

1990

Geological Society of America Special Papers

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A series of iridium anomalies and microtektite-bearing layers indicative of extraterrestrial impact events have been found in late Eocene sediments in the deep sea. Previously, these deposits had been reported to be approximately synchronous with major extinction events in groups of both terrestrial and marine organisms. Highresolution biostratigraphic studies, though, have failed to find any direct evidence for association between impact-derived materials and species extinctions in individual stratigraphic sequences. In addition, stable isotopic studies of the deep-sea record reveal abundant evidence for an episode of major climatic change beginning in the middle Eocene and continuing through the Oligocene. A new analysis of patterns of taxic richness, extinction rates, and origination rates in 17 Eocene through Oligocene planktic foraminiferal biozones indicates that relatively high numbers of planktic foraminiferal taxic extinctions are not confined to the Eocene/Oligocene boundary, or to biozones containing impact ejecta (e.g., microtektite layers, Ir anomalies). Instead, virtually all middle Eocene through middle Oligocene biozones are characterized by broadly comparable numbers of taxic extinctions. However, analysis of relative abundances of individual species and patterns of morphometric variation in middle and late Eocene populations of planktic foraminifera suggest that impacts may have had substantial and long-lasting effects on the dynamics of local populations within areas of direct environmental perturbation. In order to understand the local biotic effects and potential evolutionary role of events such as extraterrestrial impacts, it is important that detailed analyses of species-and population-level patterns of morphological variation and faunal turnover proceed in concert with coarser grained investigations so that patterns of variation can be compared on a wide variety of taxonomic and stratigraphic scales (e.g., species-level versus family-level taxonomic resolution, biozone-level versus stage-level stratigraphic resolution).

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A Substantial Bias in Nonparametric Tests for Periodicity in Geophysical Data

Cited by 63 publications

References 10 publications

Orbital forcing timescales: an introduction

Orbital forcing timescales: an introduction

Neocatastrophism and the milky way astrobiological landscape

Effects of late Eocene impacts on planktic foraminifera

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