A Study on the Methodology for Estimating Floating Population in Microscopic Spatial Units

Abstract

Estimating pedestrian volume has become an important topic in urban planning and transportation-planning research. However, current models find it difficult to predict long-term changes in pedestrians due to changes in land use and transport infrastructure. In this study, a methodology was devised to estimate the mesoscale pedestrian volume according to the results of a long-term-forecasting model integrating land use and transportation. The methodology was validated using pedestrian volume data collected from Gangnam, Seoul. The main contributions of this study are that the proposed methodology enables the long-term prediction of mesoscale pedestrian volume, which has previously been difficult to analyze, and that it considers not only pedestrians who are walking but also public transportation users moving between public transport nodes and buildings. Thus, it can accommodate long-term changes in not only land use but also in transportation infrastructure.