A Study on the Management Factors of Transportation Accidents of Dangerous Chemicals: from the Perspective of Bayesian Network

Abstract

Management directly impactsthe occurrence of the direct factors of the accidents.Unfulfilled management is the incentive of transportation accidents of dangerous chemicals. In order to investigate the influence path and the degree of the management factors in the accident cause system, with the help of the structural equation model, a hypothesis relationshipbetween the management factors and the influence of direct accident factors is constructed, analyzed and verified. Furthermore, via the Bayesian network model, the cause system is intuitively described, the posterior probability of each management factor under each state of the accidents is calculated, and suggestions are provided to reduce the accident rates and to strengthen the safety production management.