A Study on the Arable Land Demand for Food Security in China

Abstract

Food security is the basis of social stability and development. Maintaining sufficient amounts of arable land is essential for China's food security. In this paper, we consider the relationship between arable land demand to grain demand and production capacity. The changes in national population, grain production, and consumption from 2000 to 2015 are analyzed. Then, we forecast the respective possible changes in the future and accordingly forecast the arable land demand in different possible situations. The results show that the pressure to maintain sufficient amounts of arable land in 2030 may be greater than that in 2040.The higher pressure is due to larger population and lower production capacity. To ensure food security in China, we insist on maintaining 120 million ha of arable land, the "red line" for food security, and improve the arable land productivity to ensure domestic production and self-sufficiency. In addition, residents should be guided to cultivate sound food consumption habits in order to control per capita grain demand. Lastly, we should also make full use of international resources and markets to relieve the pressure on domestic resources and environments.

Spatial–temporal pattern of cultivated land productivity based on net primary productivity and analysis of influencing factors in the Songhua River basin

“…Thus, China's National Plan for Increasing Food Production Capacity [(NPIFPC);2009 refers to food 'production capacity' rather than food 'yield' (Chen, Zhao, et al, 2022). This involves pursuing not only actual increases in yield, but also improvement of cultivated land production capacity (Chen et al, 2019).…”

The estimation of non-irrigated crop area and production using the regression analysis approach: A case study of Bursa Region (Turkey) in the mid-nineteenth century

“…In Chen et al’s [ 72 ] explanation, the main factors influencing the grain demand are population size, per capita grain demand, and self-sufficiency ratio. The authors claim that rural people’s grain consumption is much higher than that of urban people as the latter more depend on indirect grain consumption [ 72 , 73 ]. According to Lu [ 74 ], grain demand per capita is 400 kg of grain per year of subsistence and 400–600 kg for a moderately prosperous life.…”

“…The grain self-sufficiency ratio represents the ratio of grain produced by a country or region to the grain demand of country, region, or local area. The self-sufficiency ratio of more than 1 indicates total self-sufficiency; between 0.9 and 1 means low-to-high self-sufficiency, and less than 0.9 means a high risk of food security [ 72 ]. In our case study, nearly all of the settlements in Bursa Region were self-sufficient.…”

Saving the ground beneath our feet: Establishing priorities and criteria for governing soil use and protection

“…6 The view that urbanization represents economic progress [123] has led many administrators and politicians, especially in lower-income countries, to embrace urban expansion policies with enthusiasm [136]. However, at the local level, there are serious concerns, even within government [108], that the wider implications of farmland loss are increasing food prices and imports, escalating rural poverty, land degradation and conflict [108, 120,121,[137][138][139], as well as the less appreciated impact of soil sealing [100,108,140], including poor sanitation, flooding and pollution, which disproportionately affect rural communities [141,142]. Much of the land consumed by urban sprawl is common land on which many rural communities depend [108].…”