A Study on Growth, Instability and Forecasting of Grape Export from India

Abstract

Grape is an important fruit in the World. It is sub-tropical crop and is cultivated under tropical conditions. Productivity of grape in India is maximum among the grape growing countries of the world. The enormous global demand for grape is a chance for India to increase its export. Present study attempts to perform time series modeling for export and value of grape from India and also to forecast the export and value of grape for next five years. The study was based on secondary data on export quantity and value of grape in India during the period from 1990-91 to 2018-2019 (29 years) and it was analyzed by using Mann-Kendall test, Compound growth rate, Coefficient of Variation, Cuddy Della Valle Index, different exponential smoothing models and Markov Chain analysis.The results indicated that there was an upward positive trend of grape export from India during the study period. The performance of Indian grape with respect to growth in quantity exhibited a positive growth rate of 12.81 per cent per annum which was statistically significant at 1 per cent level of significance. The instability index of grape export and value was 29.47 and 23.37 per cent respectively. The exported quantity of Indian grape has shown an increase of 30.77 per cent and export value of grape has been increased by 22.91 per cent over the base year 2009-10 during period of last ten years. Netherland was found the most stable market among the major importer of Indian grape. While Bangladesh, UK and UAE are seemed to be moderately stable. The maximum gainer among importers of Indian grape was Germany. Brown's and Holt's exponential smoothing models are recommended to use for grape export and its total value in future from India.