A Study on Forecasting the Diffusion of Certified Testing Service Institutions and Direction of Policy Making in Defense Industry

Abstract

In order to ensure the reliability and specialty of weapon system test results, a policy of extending certified testing service institutions has been driven by applying accreditation system of the ones in defense industry. Bass and Logistic models are used to apply the policy effectively and forecast the diffusion pattern of certified testing service institutions. The parameters for diffusion forecast are estimated using the diffusion pattern of certified testing service institutions in non-defense industry, and these are applied to forecast the diffusion of certified ones in defense industry. Coefficients of innovation and imitation of Bass model are analyzed to derive the factors influencing the early adoption and diffusion patterns. The more increasing the coefficients, the earlier adoption occurred. Diffusion pattern due to coefficient of imitation, internal factor, has larger effect on sensitivity of diffusion pattern. This means that the self recognition of necessity is more effectively worked than the policy or regulations driven by government. 1)