A Study on Establishment of Drought Index for Agricultural Disaster Prediction

Abstract

This study aims to establish a drought index for disaster prediction in Gyeongsangnam-do, where the most agricultural drought damage occurred from 1965 to 2018. The drought index was analyzed for each duration (3, 6, 9, 12 months) targeting the SPI. Damage characteristics of the duration of agricultural drought were calculated. SPI for each duration of agricultural drought damage period in Gyeongsangnam-do was at least -2.0 or less, and the maximum was -1.0 or more, and weak and moderate drought were analyzed. However, due to the heavy rain effect during the rainy season, the average SPI12 was -1.06, and the impact of agricultural drought was negligible. It was analyzed that the correlation between the damage period of agricultural drought and the SPI by duration was high. However, there is not much difference in SPI for each duration to determine the occurrence of damage. In this study, the criterion for disaster prediction of agricultural drought was calculated as representative drought index by year as the minimum drought index of SPI for each duration of damage occurrence period of past agricultural drought. The Standard of drought index for disaster prediction was set to -1.64, the average of the SPI for each duration of year in which damage occurred in the past.

Analyzing Downstream Flooding Effects Due to Small-Scale Reservoir Destruction Using Flow-R

“…최근 설계빈도를 넘어서는 극한강우의 발생은 미정비 재해위험지구에서의 인명 및 재산피해의 주요 원인이 되고 있다. 이에, 기후변화 하에서 미래의 강우패턴이 어떻게 변화하고 수문변수의 분포형이 어떻게 변화할지를 이해하기 위한 연구가 진행되어져 왔다 (Song et al, 2000;Fowler and Kilsby, 2003;Wang and Yang, 2005)…”