A study of the timing and duration of icebreaks on shipping routes in the Laptev Sea

Abstract

The dynamics of the development of the Lena polynya forming in the Laptev Sea and its impact on navigation conditions in the Arctic, in the Laptev Sea, is investigated. The hypothesis is tested that the timing of polynya may have a significant impact on its average growth rate. The results of the GLORYS12v1 global reanalysis and standard methods of mathematical statistics were used in this test. The validity of the hypothesis was confirmed by the example of the section of the polynya located at the mouth of the major navigable channel of the Lena delta Bykovskaya. Stable tendencies of changing the dates of the polynya formation towards earlier dates in the modern period have been revealed. A high probability of improvement of navigation conditions is observed in this region in 2020-2040. However, with further warming of the Siberian climate, the opposite process is possible - the freezing of the polynya that formed too early, which will lead to a colder climate in the region and deterioration of navigation conditions. The selection of general routes for ships in the areas where the polynya is spreading will contribute to more intensive and safer navigation. For this purpose, accurate forecasts of its size and position are required. The relevance of research results for ship traffic forecasting and plans for the use of icebreaker escorts for vessels is noted.