A Study of the Evolution of Uncertainty in Product Development as a Basis for Overlapping

Abstract

Overlapping new product design process is widely applied in industry. However, selections of appropriate overlapping strategies based on the prediction of process performance can be problematic due to insufficient understanding on the dependence between design processes and its effect on the performance. This paper introduces a new model for a product design organization that is based on the evolving nature of the design process, the dependence between up and downstream design specifications, and the design technology being adopted. The model presents an evaluation method for quantifying the downstream evolutionary behavior. Through an industrial case study, it is applied to evaluate how the design performances vary under different overlapping strategies and how to determine an optimal overlapping; the results imply that the performance is contingent on the strategy, and no single strategy outperforms in overall performance measures. Furthermore, the model measures process dependency-a quantification of the downstream work that is indifferent to the change of the upstream. This quantification can be applied to determine the rework probability or rework function proposed by other studies. The model also addresses the rationale of how improving design technology efficiency can lead to an upgrading of design performances.

Dynamism in Complex Engineering: Explaining Uncertainty Growth Through Uncertainty Masking

“…In line with prior theory we observed high levels of uncertainty in the early project stages, compounded of uncertainty multiplicity associated with multiple uncertainty types [2], [4], [29], [30]. In addition to the uncertainty types described by O'Connor and Rice [2], we observed a new type in complex engineering: relational uncertainty.…”

“…Later models have elaborated uncertainty theory by describing uncertainty multiplicity, replacing the previous conceptualisation of uncertainty as a consolidated phenomenon [2], [4], [29], [30]. This resulted in the elaborated characterisations of multiple uncertainty types, each of which contribute to the level of uncertainty.…”

Research and Application of the Simulation Method for Product Development Process Based on System Dynamics

“…Mallek-Daclin et al (2023) proposed the application of digital twin technology to real-time check the deviation between product development models and reality, in order to quickly predict otherwise unforeseeable events [40]. Zhang and Bhuiyan (2014) studied uncertain evolution patterns under different overlapping modes to determine the optimal overlapping process [41].…”

Uncertainty and Activity Selection in New Product Development: An Experimental Study

“…This creates complexity and undetected interrelations between project elements [35], and subsequently, high levels of uncertainty [36]. As such, uncertainty is a critical aspect of NPD [37], [38] and can significantly impact project outcome both positively and negatively. Positive effects include unexpected opportunities emerging during the innovation process [37], [39], while negative effects include managers' reduced ability to make decisions and enact planned project activities [40].…”