A study of NAO variability and its possible non-linear influences on European surface temperature

Pozo-Vázquez, D.; Esteban‐Parra, María Jesús; Rodrigo, F. S.; Castro‐Díez, Yolanda

doi:10.1007/s003820000137

Cited by 127 publications

(74 citation statements)

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“…Similar variability patterns were also obtained in other studies (PozoVázquez et al, 2001a;Castro-Díez et al, 2002). From this result, we can note the well-differenced behaviour that presents the Iberian Peninsula compared to the rest of Europe, mainly justified by its localization with respect to the south centre of NAO dipole (Pozo-Vázquez et al, 2001a;Castro-Díez et al, 2002).…”

Section: Discussion and Concluding Remarkssupporting

confidence: 90%

Variability of the monthly European temperature and its association with the Atlantic sea‐surface temperature from interannual to multidecadal scales

Gámiz‐Fortis

Esteban‐Parra

Pozo-Vázquez

et al. 2010

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:The relationships between the main patterns of variability of the Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and the European land-surface temperatures (LSTs) at interannual-to-multidecadal time scales are investigated along the period 1872-2004. Principal component analysis (PCA) is used firstly to obtain the main spatio-temporal patterns of variability of the LSTs and SSTs. Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA) is then used to decompose the time series associated with these patterns into nonlinear trends and quasi-periodic oscillations, searching for common oscillatory modes to the SSTs and LSTs. The potential predictability of the LSTs based on the SSTs is also analysed. Regarding the SSA results, three robust oscillations of periods around 13.7, 7.5 and 5.2 years, present both in the Atlantic SSTs and north-western European LSTs, were isolated. These oscillations were found to be associated mainly with a quadripolar SST pattern in the North Atlantic region, usually related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) atmospheric mode of variability. The predictability study revealed that the SSTs of the Atlantic Ocean are able to account for about 12% of the north-western European LSTs variance. Additionally, an oscillatory component with period around 3.6 years was identified, but no significant connection between SST and LST was found for this mode. In addition, at this time scale, we find that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is leading the Atlantic SST quadripolar pattern by 6 months. Finally, the analysis of the nonlinear trends showed the presence of oscillations with periods around 60-100 years, both in the SSTs and LSTs. At these later time scales, our results reveal that the multidecadal behaviour of the southern European LSTs is related to Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) during the period 1872-1940, unlike the northern and eastern European LSTs, while, during the period 1941-2004, the AMO sign seems to be present in whole Europe.

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Section: Discussion and Concluding Remarkssupporting

confidence: 90%

Variability of the monthly European temperature and its association with the Atlantic sea‐surface temperature from interannual to multidecadal scales

Gámiz‐Fortis

Esteban‐Parra

Pozo-Vázquez

et al. 2010

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…These physical mechanisms and its consequences have been studied and related with the main patterns of atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic sector and at hemispheric and global scales (von Storch et al, 1993;Martín-Vide and Fernandez, 2001;Pozo-Vázquez et al, 2001, 2004. Precipitation over the Peninsula has been studied, as well, associated with different weather types (Goodes and Palutikof, 1998;Trigo and DaCamara, 2000;Goodes and Jones, 2002;Paredes et al, 2006;VicenteSerrano and López Moreno, 2006).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A shift in the spatial pattern of Iberian droughts during the 17th century

et al. 2010

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Abstract. In this paper, series of drought occurrence and drought extension in the Iberian Peninsula are constructed for the 1600-1750 period from seven rogation series. These rogation ceremony records come from Bilbao, Catalonia, Zamora, Zaragoza, Toledo, Murcia and Seville. They are distributed across the Peninsula and include the areas with the most characteristic Iberian climate types, influenced by the Atlantic and the Mediterranean conditions, described from modern data. A seasonal division of the series shows that spring is a critical season for rogation series in most of Iberia, being Bilbao the only site were the highest number of rogations is detected for a different season. The annual analysis of the series shows a dramatic difference between the first half of the 17th century when droughts are characterized by its local character; and the rest of the period, when they affect to broader regions or even to the whole Peninsula. The analysis of spring series confirms the existence of the two periods detected in the annual analysis. Finally, secondary documentary sources are used to further characterise the two most extended droughts in the period, 1664 and 1680, and to verify the extension of the areas affected by droughts recorded through rogation series.

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“…The chosen height levels are proven to be among the best predictors of climate variability in many regions worldwide (Pozo-Vázquez et al, 2001;Xoplaki et al, 2003;Vicente-Serrano et al, 2011). The use of geopotential data at different heights can determine whether anomalous low pressure at the surface during cyclonic days are forced by similar or different modes of pressure at mid and shallow troposphere.…”

Section: Reanalysis Derived Patterns In Weather Typesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-decadal classification of synoptic weather types, observed trends and links to rainfall characteristics over Saudi Arabia

Kenawy

McCabe

Stenchikov

et al. 2014

Front. Environ. Sci.

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An automated version of the Lamb weather type classification scheme was employed to characterize daily circulation conditions in Saudi Arabia from 1960 to 2005. Daily gridded fields of sea level pressure (SLP) from both the NCEP/NCAR and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis data (ERA40) were used as input data for this classification. The output catalog included 10 basic types, which describe the direction and vorticity of airflow in the region (i.e., cyclonic, anti-cyclonic, and directional). In general, our findings indicate that cyclonic (C) days represent the most frequent type among all days, with 69.2% of the annual count of days from 1960 to 2005, followed by SE directional flows (21%). It was also determined that airflows originating from the Indian Ocean (i.e., S, SE, and E) are more frequent than those from the Mediterranean and Red Seas (i.e., W, NW, and SW). The defined weather types were assessed for the presence of inter-annual and intra-annual trends using the Mann-Kendall tau statistic. The trend analysis suggests statistically significant changes in the frequencies of a majority of the weather types from 1960 to 2005. The relationship between the daily occurrence of rainfall and the frequency of individual weather types was also described using daily rainfall data from a network of 87 weather observatories. Results demonstrate that increasing frequencies of weather types connected to easterly inflows support higher precipitation amounts over the study domain. Characterizing the association between atmospheric circulation patterns and rainfall in Saudi Arabia is important for understanding potential impacts related to climate variability and also for developing circulation-based downscaling methods.

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A study of NAO variability and its possible non-linear influences on European surface temperature

Cited by 127 publications

References 0 publications

Variability of the monthly European temperature and its association with the Atlantic sea‐surface temperature from interannual to multidecadal scales

Variability of the monthly European temperature and its association with the Atlantic sea‐surface temperature from interannual to multidecadal scales

A shift in the spatial pattern of Iberian droughts during the 17th century

Multi-decadal classification of synoptic weather types, observed trends and links to rainfall characteristics over Saudi Arabia

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