A Stochastic Model to Assess the Epidemiological Impact of Vaccine Booster Doses on COVID-19 and Viral Hepatitis B Co-Dynamics with Real Data

Omame, Andrew; Abbas, Mujahid; Baleanu, Dumitru

doi:10.32604/cmes.2023.029681

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 46 publications

(59 reference statements)

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“…The simultaneous spread of two or more infectious diseases is referred to as a co-epidemic [3,4]. When there is another infectious illness present, one infectious disease may spread more quickly.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new co-infection model for HBV and HIV with vaccination and asymptomatic transmission using actual data from Taiwan

Ullah,

Raza,

Omame

et al. 2024

Phys. Scr.

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The co-infection of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and Hepatitis B virus (HBV) poses a major threat to public health due to their combined negative impacts on health and increased risk of complications. A novel fractional mathematical model of the dynamics of co-infection between HBV and HIV for Taiwan is presented in this paper. Detailed analyses are conducted on the possible impact of HBV vaccination on the dynamics of HBV and HIV co-infection. The next-generation matrix technique is used to calculate the fundamental reproduction number $R_0$ = max$\{R_1, R_2\}$, where $R_1$ and $R_2$ are the reproduction numbers for HBV and HIV, respectively. The disease-free and endemic equilibria of the co-infection model are calculated. An extensive investigation is carried out to determine the local and global stability of the disease-free equilibrium point through Rough Hurtwiz criteria and the construction of Lyapunov function, respectively. We demonstrate that when $R_1 < 1 < R_2$, HBV infection is eradicated, but HIV remains prevalent. If $R_2 < 1 < R_1$, the opposite outcome occurs. The real data from 2000-2023 for Taiwan is used to fit the model. The fitting results show how effectively our model handles the data. In addition, numerical simulations are run for different scenarios to observe how the vaccine and fractional parameters changed the model state variables, as well as how the solutions behaved and how quickly they reached the model's equilibrium points. According to the model's numerical analysis, greater vaccination efforts against HBV have a positive effect on the propagation of co-infection.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new co-infection model for HBV and HIV with vaccination and asymptomatic transmission using actual data from Taiwan

Ullah,

Raza,

Omame

et al. 2024

Phys. Scr.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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Robustness and exploration between the interplay of the nonlinear co-dynamics HIV/AIDS and pneumonia model via fractional differential operators and a probabilistic approach

Rashid,

Hamidi,

Raza

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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In this article, we considered a nonlinear compartmental mathematical model that assesses the effect of treatment on the dynamics of HIV/AIDS and pneumonia (H/A-P) co-infection in a human population at different infection stages. Understanding the complexities of co-dynamics is now critically necessary as a consequence. The aim of this research is to construct a co-infection model of H/A-P in the context of fractional calculus operators, white noise and probability density functions, employing a rigorous biological investigation. By exhibiting that the system possesses non-negative and bounded global outcomes, it is shown that the approach is both mathematically and biologically practicable. The required conditions are derived, guaranteeing the eradication of the infection. Furthermore, adequate prerequisites are established, and the configuration is tested for the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution. For discovering the system’s long-term behavior, a deterministic-probabilistic technique for modeling is designed and operated in MATLAB. By employing an extensive review, we hope that the previously mentioned approach improves and leads to mitigating the two diseases and their co-infections by examining a variety of behavioral trends, such as transitions to unpredictable procedures. In addition, the piecewise differential strategies are being outlined as having promising potential for scholars in a range of contexts because they empower them to include particular characteristics across multiple time frame phases. Such formulas can be strengthened via classical techniques, power law, exponential decay, generalized Mittag-Leffler kernels, probability density functions and random procedures. Furthermore, we get an accurate description of the probability density function encircling a quasi-equilibrium point if the effect of H/A-P minimizes the propagation of the co-dynamics. Consequently, scholars can obtain better outcomes when analyzing facts using random perturbations by implementing these strategies for challenging issues. Random perturbations in H/A-P co-infection are crucial in controlling the spread of an epidemic whenever the suggested circulation is steady and the amount of infection eliminated is closely correlated with the random perturbation level.

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A Stochastic Model to Assess the Epidemiological Impact of Vaccine Booster Doses on COVID-19 and Viral Hepatitis B Co-Dynamics with Real Data

Cited by 2 publications

References 46 publications

A new co-infection model for HBV and HIV with vaccination and asymptomatic transmission using actual data from Taiwan

A new co-infection model for HBV and HIV with vaccination and asymptomatic transmission using actual data from Taiwan

Robustness and exploration between the interplay of the nonlinear co-dynamics HIV/AIDS and pneumonia model via fractional differential operators and a probabilistic approach

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