A stochastic model for estimation of repair rate for system operating under performance based logistics

Abstract

A stochAstic model for estimAtion of repAir rAte for system operAting under performAnce bAsed logistics stochAstyczny model do szAcowAniA intensywności nAprAw dlA systemu dziAłAjącego w wArunkAch logistyki wydAjnościowej Performance Based Logistics (PBL) concept has an aim to improve the system availability and it has been extensively researched in the recent years. These researches showed that inventory level does not impact system availability as much as component reliability and repair time in repairable system operating under PBL contract. Based on that, in this paper, we propose a new stochastic model for determination of annual repair rate for critical aircraft components in such system in order to achieve desired availability. The result obtained could be used for planning of base stock level and capacity of repair facilities. Keywords: repair rate, availability, stochastic model, performance based logistic. Koncepcja Logistyki Opartej na Wydajności (Performance Based Logistics, PBL), której celem jest poprawa gotowości systemów, została w ostatnich latach szeroko zbadana. Badania te wykazały, że w przypadku systemów działających w warunkach PBL, poziom zapasów nie wpływa na gotowość systemu w tak dużym stopniu jak niezawodność elementów składowych oraz czasy napraw. Opierając się na tej obserwacji, w niniejszym artykule proponujemy nowy model stochastyczny do określania rocznej intensywności napraw krytycznych elementów samolotu tworzących system tego typu. Model ten pozwala na osiągnięcie pożądanej gotowości. Uzyskany model może być wykorzystany do planowania bazowego poziomu zapasów oraz przepustowości zakładów remontowych.Słowa kluczowe: intensywność napraw, gotowość, model stochastyczny, logistyka oparta na wydajności.KoNtrec N, PANić S, Petrović M, Milošević H. A stochastic model for estimation of repair rate for system operating under performance based logistics. eksploatacja i Niezawodnosc - Maintenance and reliability 2018; 20 (1): 68-72, http://dx.doi.org/10.17531/ein.2018.1.9. Eksploatacja i NiEzawodNosc -MaiNtENaNcE aNd REliability Vol. 20, No. 1, 2018 69 sciENcE aNd tEchNology availability as much as reliability and repair rate. The authors advise to focus on the component reliability and repair system efficiency to improve system availability.Based on the aforesaid research, the model presented in this paper observes the repair rate as a stochastic process and has an aim to determine this parameter for preferred level of availability. The need for stochastic modeling of repairable systems has been justified and explained in paper [1]. Model for assessment of expected time to repairIn this paper we are observing system that alternates between two states -system is operative at certain time and non-operative otherwise. In the literature, this approach is known as alternating renewal process [4]. We assumed that at the start system is operative. It remains in that state for a period of time T (failure time), then it stops operating for time R (repair time) and after being repaired system is...

Poisson-distributed failures in the predicting of the cost of corrective maintenance

“…The problem formulated in the title of this paper consists in developing a method for assessing the risk of costs incurred by the supplier during selected corrective maintenance procedures. The stochastic Poisson processes [1,12,19], taking into account a repair costs table, were used to solve this research problem.…”

“…The basis for the applied stochastic modelling of cost processes are the theorems and properties of a homogeneous Poisson process. The definitions and variable naming convention used were taken from the papers [1,6,10,12,19,22]. An interesting example of using the Poisson process to model the number of accidents in the Baltic Sea, in order to increase the safety of navigation is presented in the paper [11].…”

“…Reliability models that take into account the occurrence of random failures are usually based on stochastic processes. In particular, in the predictive problems of system reliability analysis, they constitute strong tools [1,10,11,16,19]. The classic problem is still valid: how system reliability can be improved using mathematical modelling.…”

“…The classic problem is still valid: how system reliability can be improved using mathematical modelling. In this area, many interesting articles and books have already been written [7,12,13,19,20,26]. Applications of mathematics, in particular probability theory and statistics, for problems of operation and maintenance of technical objects cover such issues as: planning of active and passive experiments, inventory management, analysis of data about failures [6,8], preventive maintenance policy optimisation, maintenance costs analysis, management of operation and maintenance processes.…”

Stochastic Modeling Of Photovoltaic Cell Condition

“…The problem of determining the reliability and condition of objects is a scientific matter that is currently and nowadays popular [17,33]. Examples of objects in the subject matter are photovoltaic panels.…”