A stochastic event-based approach for flood estimation in catchments with mixed rainfall/snowmelt flood regimes

Abstract

Abstract. The estimation of extreme floods is associated with high uncertainty, in part due to the limited length of streamflow records. Traditionally, flood frequency analysis or event-based model using a single design storm have been applied. We propose here an alternative, stochastic event-based modelling approach. The stochastic PQRUT method involves Monte Carlo procedure to simulate different combinations of initial conditions, rainfall and snowmelt, from which a distribution of flood peaks can be constructed. The stochastic PQRUT was applied for 20 small and medium-sized catchments in Norway and the 5 results show good fit to the observations. A sensitivity analysis of the method indicates that the soil saturation level is less important than the rainfall input and the parameters of the PQRUT model for flood peaks with return periods higher than 100 years, and that excluding the snow routine can change the seasonality of the flood peaks. Estimates for the 100-and 1000-year return level based on the stochastic PQRUT model are compared with results for a) statistical frequency analysis, and b) a standard implementation of the event-based PQRUT method. The differences between the estimates can be up to 200% for 10 some catchments, which highlights the uncertainty in these methods.

A Framework for Estimating the Probability Distribution of Event Runoff Coefficient in Ungauged Catchments

“…The typical probability distribution of ERC conditioned on each catchment pre‐event condition (taking antecedent soil moisture and event rainfall depth as an example) has already been determined. For ungauged catchments, the probability distribution or the specific sample data of catchment event indicators can be derived (e.g., event rainfall depth can be obtained from satellite or reanalysis products or an event‐based stochastic rainfall model (Filipova et al., 2019; Gao et al., 2018; Loveridge & Rahman, 2021), while antecedent soil moisture can be collected from satellite or reanalysis products). The occurrence proportions of different temporal conditions subgroups (e.g., low soil moisture and high event rainfall, high soil moisture and low event rainfall) for a given ungauged catchment are adopted to behave as weights in mixed distribution.…”