A stochastic approach to the characterization of the seismic sources: a potential method for the assessment of sources of historical and paleo tsunami

Cifuentes-Lobos, Rodrigo; Calisto, Ignacia; MacInnes, Breanyn; Moreno, Marcos; Quezada, Jorge; Martín, Javiera San; Fernández-Palma, Matías; Saavedra, Cristian

doi:10.1007/s00477-023-02397-1

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…For example, we have demonstrated that the three rupture models we tested that result in 0.4-0.5 m of subsidence at the Salmon River (the DOGAMI SM sources) are unlikely to account for the observed tsunami deposits regardless of the model parameters used, but we cannot unequivocally rule out that there is a plausible tsunami source that causes ∼0.5 m of subsidence and generates a tsunami large enough to model the observed pattern of deposition. Such uncertainties could be reduced by stochastically testing a larger variety of hypothetical earthquake sources (e.g., Cifuentes-Lobos et al (2023), Goda (2022), and Melgar (2021)) at the Salmon River.…”

Section: Interpretive Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Testing Megathrust Rupture Models Using Tsunami Deposits

La Selle,

Nelson,

Witter

et al. 2024

JGR Earth Surface

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The 26 January 1700 CE Cascadia subduction zone earthquake ruptured much of the plate boundary and generated a tsunami that deposited sand in coastal marshes from northern California to Vancouver Island. Although the depositional record of tsunami inundation is extensive in some of these marshes, few sites have been investigated in enough detail to map the inland extent of sand deposition and depict variability in tsunami deposit thickness and grain size. We collected 129 cores in marshes of the Salmon River estuary in Oregon and reanalyzed 114 core logs from a 1987–88 study that mapped the inland extent of circa 1700 CE sandy tsunami deposits. The ca. 1700 CE tsunami deposit in the Salmon River estuary is easily recognized in cores ≤1 m deep in which a buried marsh peat is overlain by a well sorted sand bed with a sharp lower contact that thins and fines inland. We use tsunami deposit data and models of sandy tsunami sediment transport (using Delft3D‐FLOW) to test 15 rupture models that could represent a ca. 1700 CE earthquake. At least 12–16 m of slip offshore of the Salmon River, which results in 0.8–1.0 m of coastal coseismic subsidence, is required to match the ca. 1700 CE sand deposit's inland extent, which is consistent with models of heterogeneous megathrust slip in ca. 1700 CE. Our methods of detailed tsunami deposit mapping, combined with sediment transport modeling, can be used to test models of megathrust ruptures and their tsunamis to potentially improve earthquake and tsunami hazard assessments.

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Section: Interpretive Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Such uncertainties could be reduced by stochastically testing a larger variety of hypothetical earthquake sources (e.g., Cifuentes‐Lobos et al. (2023), Goda (2022), and Melgar (2021)) at the Salmon River.…”

Section: Interpretive Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Testing Megathrust Rupture Models Using Tsunami Deposits

La Selle,

Nelson,

Witter

et al. 2024

JGR Earth Surface

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Characterization of historical megathrust earthquake ruptures in Central Chile using logic tree analysis

San Martín,

Calisto,

Quezada

et al. 2024

Nat Hazards

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Characterizing the spatial distribution of ruptures from historical and recent earthquakes is key to understanding the seismic cycle of large earthquakes in subduction zones, and thus to assessing the potential Springer Nature 2021 L A T E X template Characterization of historical megathrust earthquake ruptures in Central Chile using logic tr risks associated with future earthquakes. Central Chile (35 • S-38 • S) has been continuously affected by large earthquakes, such as the 2010 Maule (Mw 8.8) and the 1835 earthquakes witnessed by Robert Fitzroy (HMS Beagle captain). Here, we identify the rupture pattern and tsunami propagation of the 1751, 1835, and 2010 mega-earthquakes, events that overlapped in central Chile, by compiling historical records and applying robust statistical tools. We used an adaptation of a logic tree methodology to generate random sources of slip distribution for each event, constrained by tsunami and deformation data. We find that the three events studied have different slip peaks. The 1751 earthquake has the largest slip with a maximum patch of ∼ 26 m, while the 2010 and 1835 earthquakes reach slips of ∼ 16 m and ∼ 10 m, respectively. Our results show that a part of the segment between 36 • S and 37 • S was consistently affected by large earthquakes, but with different slip and depth. The northern part of the segment accumulated energy for at least 300 years and was released by the 2010 earthquake. This work provides important information for identifying rupture patterns between historical and recent earthquakes, and highlights the importance of extending the time scale of earthquake slip distribution analyses to multiple cycles to describe both earthquake characteristics and their spatial relationship, and thus gain a better understanding of seismic hazard.

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A stochastic approach to the characterization of the seismic sources: a potential method for the assessment of sources of historical and paleo tsunami

Cited by 2 publications

References 50 publications

Testing Megathrust Rupture Models Using Tsunami Deposits

Testing Megathrust Rupture Models Using Tsunami Deposits

Characterization of historical megathrust earthquake ruptures in Central Chile using logic tree analysis

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