A Statistical Model for Prediction of Fuel Element Failure Using the Markov Process and Entropy Minimax Principles

Zusammenfassung In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird der Kraftwerksbetrieb durch eine Markoff-Kette mit stetigem Parameter und diskretem Zustandsraum modelliert. Die Verf/igbarkeit des Kraftwerkes wird berechnet, die Empfindlichkeit der verschiedenen Betriebszust~inde behandelt sowie die 0bergangswahrscheinlichkeit aus einem in den anderen Betriebszustand n/iher untersucht. Die theoretischen Uberlegungen werden mit statistisch erfassten Betriebsdaten mehrerer Kohle-und Kernkraftwerke verglichen. Power plant reliability calculation with Markov Chain modelsAbstract In the paper power plant operation is modelled using continuous time Markov chains with discrete state space. The model is used to compute the power plant reliability and the importance and influence of individual states, as well as the transition probabilities between states. For comparison the model is fitted to data for coal and nuclear power plants recorded over several years.

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Berechnung der Verfügbarkeit der Kraftwerke mit Hilfe der Markoff-Kette

Senegačnik

Tuma

1998

Forsch Ing-Wes

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A Statistical Model for Prediction of Fuel Element Failure Using the Markov Process and Entropy Minimax Principles

Cited by 1 publication

References 6 publications

Berechnung der Verfügbarkeit der Kraftwerke mit Hilfe der Markoff-Kette

Berechnung der Verfügbarkeit der Kraftwerke mit Hilfe der Markoff-Kette

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