A statistical forecasting approach to metapopulation viability analysis

Howell, Paige E.; Hossack, Blake R.; Muths, Erin; Sigafus, Brent H.; Chenevert‐Steffler, Ann; Chandler, Richard B.

doi:10.1002/eap.2038

Cited by 18 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…We used statistical forecasting to assess population viability through 2040 (Clark et al, 2001 ; Desforges et al, 2018 ; Hooker et al, 2020 ; Howell et al, 2020 ). Statistical forecasting accounts for process variance (i.e., demographic stochasticity and environmental change) as well as parameter uncertainty (Zylstra & Zipkin, 2021 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate‐mediated population dynamics of a migratory songbird differ between the trailing edge and range core

Lewis

Cooper

Chandler

et al. 2023

Ecological Monographs

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Understanding the demographic drivers of range contractions is important for predicting species' responses to climate change; however, few studies have examined the effects of climate change on survival and recruitment across species' ranges. We show that climate change can drive trailing edge range contractions through the effects on apparent survival, and potentially recruitment, in a migratory songbird. We assessed the demographic drivers of trailing edge range contractions using a long‐term demography dataset for the black‐throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens) collected across elevational climate gradients at the trailing edge and core of the breeding range. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the effect of climate change on apparent survival and recruitment and to forecast population viability at study plots through 2040. The trailing edge population at the low‐elevation plot became locally extinct by 2017. The local population at the mid‐elevation plot at the trailing edge gradually declined and is predicted to become extirpated by 2040. Population declines were associated with warming temperatures at the mid‐elevation plot, although results were more equivocal at the low‐elevation plot where we had fewer years of data. Population density was stable or increasing at the range core, although warming temperatures are predicted to cause population declines by 2040 at the low‐elevation plot. This result suggests that even populations within the geographic core of the range are vulnerable to climate change. The demographic drivers of local population declines varied between study plots, but warming temperatures were frequently associated with declining rates of population growth and apparent survival. Declining apparent survival in our study system is likely to be associated with increased adult emigration away from poor‐quality habitats. Our results suggest that demographic responses to warming temperatures are complex and dependent on local conditions and geographic range position, but spatial variation in population declines is consistent with the climate‐mediated range shift hypothesis. Local populations of black‐throated blue warblers near the warm‐edge range boundary at low latitudes and low elevations are likely to be the most vulnerable to climate change, potentially leading to local extirpation and range contractions.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate‐mediated population dynamics of a migratory songbird differ between the trailing edge and range core

Lewis

Cooper

Chandler

et al. 2023

Ecological Monographs

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We combined these estimates and the associated uncertainty with uncertainty in the future mean climate conditions to evaluate the range of possible extinction futures for the Shenandoah salamander (e.g. a ‘statistical PVA’; Howell et al, 2019). Our PVA results indicate that, across a range of future climate scenarios, the Shenandoah salamander is at the risk of extinction.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Abiotic and biotic factors reduce the viability of a high‐elevation salamander in its native range

Grant

DiRenzo

Brand

2023

Journal of Applied Ecology

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Amphibian populations are undergoing worldwide declines, and high‐elevation, range‐restricted amphibian species may be particularly vulnerable to environmental stressors. In particular, future climate change may have disproportional impacts to these ecosystems. Evaluating the combined effects of abiotic changes and biotic interactions simultaneously is important for forecasting the range of future outcomes. This information is necessary to aid conservation decision‐making. We use field data to estimate population demographic parameters for an exemplary high‐elevation amphibian species, the federally endangered Shenandoah salamander Plethodon shenandoah. These parameters were entered into a Markov projection model which we used to forecast the future population status of the Shenandoah salamander. We found that if the population maintains its current site colonization and persistence rates, it is at the risk of extinction that could be exacerbated by both climate and interspecific competition. Synthesis and applications. Managers have a fundamental objective directed by official policy of maintaining the species ‘for the foreseeable future’. Our evaluation of multiple hypotheses about population drivers reveals that extinction is projected for this species. Our analysis suggests that considering active management need not depend on resolving the uncertainty.

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“…This output metric was particularly useful in our case because we do not know how many sites are currently occupied or how many sites are available for occupation. It is important for decision support models, in an SSA context especially, to incorporate all of the important sources of uncertainty so that decision makers can see the range of expected outcomes in the future (McGowan et al 2011, 2017, Heard et al 2013, Howell et al 2020). Thus our model incorporated uncertainty in the initial number of sites occupied and then assessed future conditions with respect to the uncertain starting conditions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our model is intended to be useful for informing decisions about eastern black rails; however, all models are limited in their utility and inference capabilities. One major potential limitation of our modeling is the data we used to parameterize these simulations (Williams et al 2002, Howell et al 2020. The projection models are entirely dependent on the data used to estimate occupancy and extinction dynamics.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Linking monitoring and data analysis to predictions and decisions for the range-wide eastern black rail status assessment

McGowan

Angeli²,

Beisler³

et al. 2020

Endang. Species. Res.

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The US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) has initiated a re-envisioned approach for providing decision makers with the best available science and synthesis of that information, called the Species Status Assessment (SSA), for endangered species decision making. The SSA report is a descriptive document that provides decision makers with an assessment of the current and predicted future status of a species. These analyses support all manner of decisions under the US Endangered Species Act, such as listing, reclassification, and recovery planning. Novel scientific analysis and predictive modeling in SSAs could be an important part of rooting conservation decisions in current data and cutting edge analytical and modeling techniques. Here, we describe a novel analysis of available data to assess the current condition of eastern black rail Laterallus jamaicensis jamaicensis across its range in a dynamic occupancy analysis. We used the results of the analysis to develop a site occupancy projection model where the model parameters (initial occupancy, site persistence, colonization) were linked to environmental covariates, such as land management and land cover change (sea-level rise, development, etc.). We used the projection model to predict future status under multiple sea-level rise and habitat management scenarios. Occupancy probability and site colonization were low in all analysis units, and site persistence was also low, suggesting low resiliency and redundancy currently. Extinction probability was high for all analysis units in all simulated scenarios except one with significant effort to preserve existing habitat, suggesting low future resiliency and redundancy. With the results of these data analyses and predictive models, the USFWS concluded that protections of the Endangered Species Act were warranted for this subspecies.

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A statistical forecasting approach to metapopulation viability analysis

Cited by 18 publications

References 58 publications

Climate‐mediated population dynamics of a migratory songbird differ between the trailing edge and range core

Climate‐mediated population dynamics of a migratory songbird differ between the trailing edge and range core

Abiotic and biotic factors reduce the viability of a high‐elevation salamander in its native range

Linking monitoring and data analysis to predictions and decisions for the range-wide eastern black rail status assessment

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