A statistical expert system for simulation analysis

Abstract

Efforts on a number of fronts are being made to enhance the usefulness of simulation as a tool for analysis. Graphical input, animation, automated program generation, model management utilities, and user interactive environments all address the issue of ease of use. Even with the current emphasis in this regard, simulation suffers from several shortcomings which preclude even greater application of the methodology. One of the more significant limitations is the dependence of simulation on statistical methodologies. Practically every phase of simulation analysis involves one or more statistical issues. And the fact of the matter is that many simulation practitioners have neither the statistical skills nor the access to qualified statisticians to effectively address these crucial issues.The obvious solution to this problem would be to have an expert statistician available during every simulation study to answer any questions concerning statistical issues. A more practical alternative is to make available an expert system which could function as a statistical advisor to simulation analysts. This option seems ideally suited for expert system techniques since it is welldefined and narrowly bounded and an appropriate body of statistical knowledge exists. The objective of this research was to develop such an expert statistical consultant. The system would be able to advise as well as perform appropriate computations for a variety of statistical issues including input data analysis, design of experiments, and output analysis. An overview of the proposed system is given and illustrations of the capabilities of the system are presented.

Using Expert Systems for Simulation Modeling of Patient Scheduling

“…Burns and Morgeson [7] [9] as well as Tao and Nelson [10]. Others have applied expert systems to the statistical analysis problems associated with simulation experiments: Mellichamp and Park [11] and Ramachandran, Kimbler, and Naadimuthu [12]. No In summary, the appointment-type-compatibility rules forbid an appointment to start when another appointment of the same type is ongoing.…”

“…Expert system techniques have been developed to assist the modeler in designing simulation experiments as discussed by Taylor and Huron [9] as well as Tao and Nelson [10]. Others have applied expert systems to the statistical analysis problems associated with simulation experiments: Mellichamp and Park [11] and Ramachandran, Kimbler, and Naadimuthu [12].…”

An interactive debugging expert system for GPSS/H simulation models

“…A number of animation packages are available to provide the analyst with the capability to view simulated activity as it occurs in the model (Pegden, Miles and Diaz 1985) (Standridge 1985) (Schroer and Teoh 1986). And packages are emerging to assist the analyst with the often complex task of determining how to deal with the diverse statistical issues in simulation (Mellichamp and Park 1989).…”