A statistical analysis for the epidemiological surveillance of COVID-19 in Chile

Abstract

Background: The emergence of COVID-19 so far and in the immediate future has brought significant uncertainties that negatively impact institutions and individuals in developing and planning their activities worldwide. The uncertainty of the effectiveness of vaccines has forced the authorities to adopt different protocols, the most relevant of which is the isolation of people through quarantine to avoid contagion, drastically affecting our way of life. For this reason, it is crucial to evaluate the effectiveness of quarantines. Objective: To analyze the spread of the disease in Chile according to the quarantines decreed by the sanitary authority. Methods: Inferential study to estimate the trend changes in COVID-19 cases and their basic and instantaneous reproduction numbers, which allows us to evaluate the decreed measures and establish vaccination policies. Results: According to the data obtained until 03 March 2021 of confirmed COVID-19 cases disaggregated at a regional level in Chile, we observe a heterogeneous spread in most Chilean regions. When incorporating the dynamic quarantines decreed, effectiveness is detected in most regions, except in some few of them. Conclusion: Our results indicate that we are unable to identify the measures in the step-by-step protocols partly responsible for non-compliance with quarantines. However, our specific findings that can be extrapolated to daily practice and enlighten the ways of other countries are as follows. On the one hand, a measure that has been effective in curbing the spread of the disease is the strict early quarantine as detected in some Chilean regions. Therefore, indexes are needed to measure the mobility of citizens. On the other hand, as time passes without stopping infections, quarantines lose effectiveness even if the estimated instantaneous reproduction number is small and stable. In addition, other factors can cause this number to not be within the expected ranges which must be further studied. Also, we have estimated the basic reproduction number whose value confirms the suitability of the pandemic declaration.

Decursin alleviates LPS-induced lung epithelial cell injury by inhibiting NF-κB pathway activation

“…22,23 In addition, Tanshinone IIA (Tan IIA) could improve sepsis-induced ALI by mediating ROCK2-NF-κB axis. 24 These studies, together with our findings, confirmed that NF-κB pathway could serve as a target for treating ALI.…”

Surveillance of the recurrence time of the effectiveness of national and region-level quarantines of COVID-19 pandemic in Chile

“…The structure of this paper is organized as follows: Section 2 provides a concise description of the data used in this study, with a focus on the instantaneous reproductive number index generated in studies by [ 9 ]. We also explain the methods related to estimating the mean and median of the residual time until the control or non-control of the pandemic occurs.…”

Crowding on public transport using smart card data during the COVID-19 pandemic: New methodology and case study in Chile

“…The spread of COVID-19 was so rapid that almost all countries imposed either partial or complete lockdown in affected areas to curb its spread ( Li et al, 2021 , Ospina et al, 2021 ). Precautionary measures imposed by different governments are directing their masses to follow the standard operating procedure to control its spread ( Jerez-Lillo, Álvarez, Gutiérrez, Figueroa-Zúñiga, & Leiva, 2021 ).…”

“…By the end of 2021, the COVID-19 disease infected almost 300 million persons and claimed the lives of more than five million of them worldwide. Both international authorities (such as the WHO) and governments have proposed the implementation of several measures to slow down the virus’s spread ( Jerez-Lillo et al, 2021 ). Among others, avoiding public transportation overcrowding has been pointed out as a relevant safety measure to implement.…”