A SPEI-Based Approach to Drought Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk Analysis in the Lower Danube River Region

Nikolova, Nina; Micu, Dana; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Radeva, Kalina; Paraschiv, Monica; Cheval, Sorin; Todorov, Leonid

doi:10.1007/978-3-031-03865-5_10

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 80 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Assessment of drought risk has a variety of approaches and applications around the globe where researchers usually monitor drought risk as a combination of some sub-indicators both around the globe [25][26][27][28], and in national boundaries [29][30][31][32]. The study supports these approaches as the adapted methodology can be used with other drought indicators.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 62%

Meteorological and Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment via Kaplan-Meier Survivability Estimator

Cetinkaya,

Gunacti

2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Dry periods and drought are inherent natural occurrences. However, due to the increasing pressures of global warming and climate change, these events become more frequent and severe on a global scale. These phenomena can be traced with various indicators and related indices proposed by various scholars. In general, drought risk assessment is done by modelling these indicators and determining the drought occurrence probabilities. The proposed adaptation introduces the "Kaplan-Meier Estimator," a non-parametric statistic traditionally used in medical contexts to estimate survival functions from lifetime data. The study aims to repurpose this methodology to assess drought risk by treating past droughts as "events" and evaluating the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and map these results for a better understanding of the drought risks within larger spatial scales such as a river basin. The adapted method provides the probability of non-occurrence, with inverted results indicating the likelihood of drought occurrence. As a case study, the method is applied to SPI and SPEI values at different time steps (3, 6, and 12 months) across 27 meteorological stations in the Gediz River Basin, located in Western Turkey—a region anticipated to be profoundly affected by global climate change. The results are represented as the generated drought risk maps and curves, which indicate that (i) drought risks increase as the considered period extends, (ii) drought risks decrease as the utilized indicator timescales increase, (iii) locally plotted drought curves indicate higher drought risks as their initial slope get steeper. The method used enables the generation of historical evidence based spatially distributed drought risk maps which expose more vulnerable areas within the river basin.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 62%

Meteorological and Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment via Kaplan-Meier Survivability Estimator

Cetinkaya,

Gunacti

2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The assessment of drought risk entails a variety of approaches and applications around the globe, where researchers usually monitor drought risk as a combination of some subindicators both around the globe [28][29][30][31] and within national boundaries [32][33][34][35]. The study supports these approaches, as the adapted methodology can be used with other drought indicators.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 66%

Meteorological and Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment via Kaplan–Meier Survivability Estimator

Cetinkaya,

Gunacti

2024

Agriculture

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Dry periods and drought are inherent natural occurrences. However, due to the increasing pressures of global warming and climate change, these events have become more frequent and severe on a global scale. These phenomena can be traced with various indicators and related indices proposed by various scholars. In general, drought risk assessment is done by modeling these indicators and determining the drought occurrence probabilities. The proposed adaptation introduces the “Kaplan–Meier estimator”, a non-parametric statistic traditionally used in medical contexts to estimate survival functions from lifetime data. The study aims to apply this methodology to assess drought risk by treating past droughts as “events” and using drought indicators such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Mapping these results for a better understanding of the drought risks on larger spatial scales such as a river basin is also within the expected outcomes. The adapted method provides the probability of non-occurrence, with inverted results indicating the likelihood of drought occurrence. As a case study, the method is applied to SPI and SPEI values at different time steps (3, 6, and 12 months) across 27 meteorological stations in the Gediz River Basin, located in Western Turkey—a region anticipated to be profoundly affected by global climate change. The results are represented as the generated drought risk maps and curves, which indicate that (i) drought risks increase as the considered period extends, (ii) drought risks decrease as the utilized indicator timescales increase, (iii) locally plotted drought curves indicate higher drought risks as their initial slope gets steeper. The method used enables the generation of historical evidence based spatially distributed drought risk maps, which expose more vulnerable areas within the river basin.

show abstract

“…Drought in Bulgaria has been investigated by many authors (Nikolova et al, 2022;Popova et al, 2014;Popova et al, 2015), but most of the analyses refer to the lowland areas such as the Danube Plain and the Upper Thracian Lowland, which are the main agricultural regions of the country. Based on the observed monthly precipitation, this article aims to quantify the meteorological drought in the Yugozapaden region, which is the most densely populated NUTS 2 region in Bulgaria.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorological drought in southwest Bulgaria during the period 1961-2020

Stoyanova

Nikolova

2022

J GEOGR INST CVIJIC

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Although drought is a common phenomenon in Southern Europe, including Bulgaria, it can have adverse effects on human life and economic activities (water scarcity, reduced agricultural production, and economic losses to agriculture). This event occurs regionally, but it can spread over large areas. Whether it will be perceived as a hazard depends on the affected areas and the degree of impact. The article aims to provide new insight into the meteorological drought in the most densely populated NUTS 2 region of Bulgaria-the Yugozapaden (Southwestern). Based on Standardized Precipitation Indices (SPI-1 and SPI-3), its occurrence during the period 1961-2020 was analysed in terms of duration, intensity, and magnitude. The maximum drought

show abstract

A SPEI-Based Approach to Drought Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk Analysis in the Lower Danube River Region

Cited by 3 publications

References 80 publications

Meteorological and Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment via Kaplan-Meier Survivability Estimator

Meteorological and Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment via Kaplan-Meier Survivability Estimator

Meteorological and Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment via Kaplan–Meier Survivability Estimator

Meteorological drought in southwest Bulgaria during the period 1961-2020

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About