A Spectral Approach to Uncertainty Quantification in Water Distribution Networks

Abstract

To date, the hydraulics of water distribution networks are calculated using deterministic models.Regarding the fact that many of the parameters in these models are not known exactly, it is important to evaluate the e ects of their uncertainties on the results through Uncertainty Analysis. For the propagation of uncertain parameters, this article for the first time applies the Polynomial Chaos expansion to a hydraulic model and compares the results to classical approaches like the First Order Second Moment method and Monte Carlo simulations. Results presented in this article show that the accuracy of the Polynomial Chaos expansion is on the same level as the Monte Carlo simulation.Further, it is concluded that due to its computational e ciency the Polynomial Chaos Expansion is superior to the Monte Carlo simulation.