A Spatiotemporal Evolution and Pathway Analysis of Rural Development Efficiency: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta

Abstract

Sustainable rural development is crucial for urban–rural integration and achieving shared prosperity. This study assesses rural development efficiency (RDE) at the county level in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region from 2012 to 2021 using the super-slacks-based measure model (SBM). By employing the Theil index and spatial Markov chains, this study explores the spatiotemporal evolution of RDE, categorizes rural development types, and proposes differentiated developmental pathways. The findings reveal (1) an initial upward trend in overall RDE in the YRD followed by stabilization, with regional disparities narrowing yet overall efficiency levels remaining relatively low; (2) a spatial distribution pattern of RDE characterized by high efficiency in the southeast and low efficiency in the northwest, forming a “core–periphery” structure, with pure technical efficiency identified as a significant bottleneck; (3) stability and “club convergence” in RDE, with geographic spatial patterns significantly influencing the transition process and a notable spatial spillover effect; (4) the classification of rural development types into six categories based on an “input–output–efficiency” perspective, each with specific developmental pathways. This study concludes that optimizing resource allocation efficiency and defining development pathways tailored to local conditions are essential for driving sustainable rural development in the YRD.