A Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Heat Island Intensity Influenced by the Substantial Urban Growth between 1990 and 2020: A Case Study of Al-Ahsa Oasis, Eastern Saudi Arabia

Abstract

Rapid urbanization has recently led to a significant propagation of heat islands. This study aimed to analyze the spatio-temporal variation in urban heat islands (UHIs) at Al-Ahsa Oasis in Saudi Arabia, in addition to exploring the urbanization influence on UHI distribution over the last 30 years. The spatial variability in UHIs was assessed, the key determinant elements were identified, and the forms of distribution were delineated. Change detection, hot spots, and spatial autocorrelation were employed to study UHI distribution and intensity and to identify the clustering and correspondence between heat and urbanization. The results revealed a considerable increase in built-up areas from 17.15% to 45.8% of total land use/cover (LULC) from 1990 to 2020. No significant variations in UHI intensity were observed (10.4 °C in 1990 and 8.7 °C for 2020). However, a remarkable link was found between urbanization and heat, confirmed by hot spot clustering over intense urban complexes, while cold spot clustering was observed over date and palm tree areas, with 99% confidence for both. Lastly, the link between temperature and urbanization was also confirmed through spatial autocorrelation, producing Moran’s indices of 0.41 and 0.45 for 1990 and 2020, respectively, with an overall significance (p-value) of 0.001. The mechanisms applied have proven their robustness in assessing the effect of urbanization on heat island distribution and quantification.

Spectral Mixture Analysis (SMA) Model for Extracting Urban Fractions from Landsat and Sentinel-2A Images in the Al-Ahsa Oasis, Eastern Region of Saudi Arabia

“…These increases took place upon barren lands and the oasis' vegetation cover (mainly date palm plantations). A substantial decrease in the vegetation cover and barren soil besides an increase in the urban area was detected between 1990 and 2020, because of the growth of the population all over the study site, which is possibly due to oil industry production as previously reported [19]. A reduction in vegetated cover by nearly 17% because of the rapid increase in urban development (more than 17% in 1990 to approximately 46% in 2020) was also reported in the same study.…”

“…Moreover, the information given in Figure 10 shows that the population in the study area increased significantly during the period from 1990 to 2020, and according to Abdelatti et al [24], the population of the Al-Ahsa Oasis (see Figure 10) has apparently doubled since the oil discovery, and this increase in population might have contributed to the current urban growth as a main driving force. They concluded that the increase in urban areas might increase what is known as dark surfaces, and consequently, it may increase land surface temperatures and urban heat islands as documented recently by Hassablla and Salih [19].…”

“…Moreover, the information given in Figure 10 shows that the population in the study area increased significantly during the period from 1990 to 2020, and according to Abdelatti et al [24], the population of the Al-Ahsa Oasis (see Figure 10) has apparently doubled since the oil discovery, and this increase in population might have contributed to the current urban growth as a main driving force. They concluded that the increase in urban areas might increase what is known as dark surfaces, and consequently, it may increase land surface temperatures and urban heat islands as documented recently by Hassablla and Salih [19]. Moreover, the information given in Figure 10 shows that the population in the study area increased significantly during the period from 1990 to 2020, and according to Abdelatti et al [24], the population of the Al-Ahsa Oasis (see Figure 10) has apparently doubled since the oil discovery, and this increase in population might have contributed to the current urban growth as a main driving force.…”

“…The selected site is situated in the Al-Ahsa Oasis, eastern part of Saudi Arabia (between the latitudes of 25 • 20 and 25 • 32 N, and the longitudes of 49 • 30 and 49 • 45 E) (Figure 1). This oasis is classified as the biggest date palm region in the kingdom and worldwide-it covers around 8000 ha (i.e., 92%) of the land [19]. It is located 45 km inland of the Arabian Gulf coast and 320 km east of the Riyadh capital city.…”